Language:English
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Pablo Carreno Busta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local)
Prediction 64.17%1.56fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -6.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.17%64.03%64.20%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.481.5170.42%67.77%67.57%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit)
Prediction 35.83%2.79fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.531%
Kelly -0.835%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%35.97%35.80%38.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.612.632.7543.48%38.27%38.02%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local): 64.17%; Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit): 35.83%. For Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.11%E -2.06%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.25%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -1.46%E -0.531%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -1.82%E -0.664%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-24 02:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.76%E -2.19%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 16:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 14:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 14:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-24 02:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -2.54%E -0.932%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-24 00:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -2.54%E -0.932%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-24 00:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -3.97%E -1.48%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -3.97%E -1.48%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 15:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 21:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 21:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.19%EV -6.48%E -2.48%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 17:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 02:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 21:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 19:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 19:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 19:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 19:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 19:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -15.79%E -6.72%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.25%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 21:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 00:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.17%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -17.59%E -7.65%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.46%E -0.531%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 19:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 21:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 16:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.12%E -2.34%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-24 02:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.01%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -15.79%E -6.72%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-23 21:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.52%EV -8.24%E -5.76%K -19.16%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 36.48%EV -10.78%E -4.33%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-23 15:58 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.88%E -6.26%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 0.8% | 2026-04-24 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15% | 1.7% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15% | 1.7% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15% | 1.7% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02% | 2.8% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 50.00% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 50.00% | 83.5% | 2026-04-23 13:50 |