L’École des cotes

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Pablo Carreno Busta

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-25 09:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local)

Prévision 64.17%1.56cote équitable
EV -3.11%
Avantage -2.06%
Kelly -6.09%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.51

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
61.17%64.03%64.20%65.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.421.481.481.5170.42%67.77%67.57%66.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Pablo Carreno Busta (Visiteur)

Prévision 35.83%2.79cote équitable
EV -1.46%
Avantage -0.531%
Kelly -0.835%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.52%35.97%35.80%38.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.612.632.7543.48%38.27%38.02%36.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.11%E -2.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.25%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 21:34
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -1.46%E -0.531%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-24 01:00
Pinnacle1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -1.82%E -0.664%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 02:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.76%E -2.19%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 16:20
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 14:34
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 14:34
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 15:40
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 15:40
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 02:54
LowVig.ag1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -2.54%E -0.932%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-24 00:40
BetOnline.ag1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -2.54%E -0.932%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-24 00:39
FanDuel1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -3.97%E -1.48%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-23 21:29
Betsson1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 21:29
NordicBet1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 21:29
DraftKings1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -3.97%E -1.48%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 15:09
Bet Right1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 21:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:49
LeoVegas1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:49
TABtouch1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:49
Unibet (NL)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:50
Unibet (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:50
Casumo1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:50
Unibet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:50
ATG (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:50
Svenska Spel1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:50
Bally Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:50
BetRivers1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:55
Grosvenor1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:55
betPARX1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:55
Hard Rock Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 21:04
GTbets1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.19%EV -6.48%E -2.48%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 17:14
Betr (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-24 02:54
PointsBet (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:29
PlayUp1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:15
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:05
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 19:04
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 19:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 19:04
Winamax (DE)1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -15.79%E -6.72%K -11.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 21:29
SportsBet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.25%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 21:29
Unibet (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 21:30
PMU (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 20:50
LiveScore Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 20:49
Virgin Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 20:50
TAB1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-24 00:39
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 61.17%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -17.59%E -7.65%K -13.53%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 21:29
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.46%E -0.531%K -0.835%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 15:15
Caesars1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 19:54
Bet Victor1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 21:29
theScore Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 21:30
Fanatics1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 16:30
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.12%E -2.34%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 21:29
Everygame1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-24 02:40
Unibet (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.01%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -15.79%E -6.72%K -11.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 21:29
Betclic (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.52%EV -8.24%E -5.76%K -19.16%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.48%EV -10.78%E -4.33%K -7.23%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 15:58
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.88%E -6.26%K -21.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 15:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Novig1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%0.8%2026-04-24 03:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15%1.7%2026-04-24 03:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15%1.7%2026-04-24 03:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15%1.7%2026-04-24 03:10
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%2.8%2026-04-24 02:50
Matchbook1.09I 91.74%NM 50.00%1.09I 91.74%NM 50.00%83.5%2026-04-23 13:50