Language:English
Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Mattia Bellucci
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local)
Prediction 73.31%1.36fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -7.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.98%73.37%73.22%75.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.281.281.3382.64%78.06%78.13%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mattia Bellucci (Visit)
Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd
EV +6.75%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +2.25%
Growth +0.152%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.10%26.63%26.78%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.583.554.0032.26%27.93%28.17%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local): 73.31%; Mattia Bellucci (Visit): 26.69%. For Mattia Bellucci (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.75%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -6.89%E -5.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +6.75%E +1.69%K +2.25%G +0.152% | 3.7% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -6.89%E -5.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +4.08%E +1.05%K +1.41%G +0.057% | 4.4% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -6.89%E -5.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +4.08%E +1.05%K +1.41%G +0.057% | 4.4% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.05%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.75%E +0.713%K +0.964%G +0.026% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.05%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.75%E +0.713%K +0.964%G +0.026% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.05%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.75%E +0.713%K +0.964%G +0.026% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.05%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.75%E +0.713%K +0.964%G +0.026% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.05%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.75%E +0.713%K +0.964%G +0.026% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.05%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.75%E +0.713%K +0.964%G +0.026% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.05%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.75%E +0.713%K +0.964%G +0.026% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +1.41%E +0.372%K +0.504%G +0.007% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.36%E -6.69%K -33.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +1.41%E +0.372%K +0.504%G +0.007% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.89%E -5.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +0.077%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.89%E -5.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +0.077%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.89%E -5.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +0.077%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.36%E -6.69%K -33.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +0.077%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 12:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -0.189%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 12:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.76%EV -3.23%E -2.44%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 26.24%EV -0.990%E -0.267%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.36%E -6.69%K -33.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.26%E -0.340%K -0.466%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.36%E -6.69%K -33.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.26%E -0.340%K -0.466%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -10.56%E -8.65%K -47.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -1.26%E -0.340%K -0.466%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -2.59%E -0.710%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.89%E -5.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -2.59%E -0.710%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -7.63%E -6.05%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -2.59%E -0.710%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -9.09%E -7.33%K -37.88%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -2.59%E -0.710%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -2.49%E -1.88%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -7.63%E -6.05%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.36%E -6.69%K -33.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.51%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.49%EV -4.46%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.11%EV -9.09%E -7.33%K -37.88%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.58%EV -11.29%E -9.33%K -53.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.69%EV -2.49%E -1.88%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.31%EV -5.53%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-09 12:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 12:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 12:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 12:28 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 12:28 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 12:28 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 12:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -3.23%E -2.44%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -6.86%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-09 12:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -3.23%E -2.44%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -6.86%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-09 12:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.52%EV -8.36%E -6.69%K -33.44%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 26.48%EV -7.40%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 12:21 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.93%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.93%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.36%EV -3.96%E -3.02%K -12.78%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.64%EV -8.46%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -3.96%E -3.02%K -12.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 12:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 12:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.23%E -2.44%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.60%E -3.16%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.51%EV -6.89%E -5.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -10.60%E -3.16%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-09 12:28 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.49%E -1.88%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -11.93%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 12:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.93%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.93%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.93%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -11.93%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-09 12:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -11.93%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -13.27%E -4.08%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-09 12:28 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -2.49%E -1.88%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -17.27%E -5.57%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-09 12:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 75.05% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.95% | 0.2% | 2026-05-09 12:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 75.05% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.95% | 0.2% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 75.05% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.95% | 0.2% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 0.3% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.66% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.34% | 2.2% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.36% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.64% | 2.7% | 2026-05-09 12:30 |