Language:English
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Tomas Machac
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local)
Prediction 39.53%2.53fair odd
EV +2.79%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.049%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.64%40.30%39.54%57.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.672.322.352.6059.88%43.02%42.55%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tomas Machac (Visit)
Prediction 60.47%1.65fair odd
EV +39.07%
Edge +16.99%
Kelly +30.05%
Growth +11.74%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.07%59.70%60.46%64.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.581.562.3069.44%63.19%64.10%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local): 39.53%; Tomas Machac (Visit): 60.47%. For Tomas Machac (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.65. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +39.07%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -33.98%E -20.35%K -50.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +39.07%E +16.99%K +30.05%G +11.74% | 3.4% | 2026-05-07 14:36 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -33.98%E -20.35%K -50.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +39.07%E +16.99%K +30.05%G +11.74% | 3.4% | 2026-05-07 14:36 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.05%E -1.26%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.05%E -1.26%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.05%E -1.26%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -2.65%E -1.65%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -9.86%E -4.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -2.65%E -1.65%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.47%E -2.83%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -8.28%E -3.57%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%EV -11.84%E -5.31%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.67%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.67%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 14:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.67%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.67%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.67%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -1.16%E -0.465%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-07 14:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -1.95%E -0.788%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.88%E -4.47%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -11.05%E -4.91%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -6.88%E -4.47%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.49%E -4.89%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 14:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.49%E -4.89%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.49%E -4.89%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 14:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -8.09%E -5.32%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -8.09%E -5.32%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.09%E -5.32%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-07 14:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.37%EV -8.70%E -5.76%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -9.30%E -6.20%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -9.30%E -6.20%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -13.02%E -5.92%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -9.30%E -6.20%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.91%E -6.65%K -20.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV +0.419%E +0.165%K +0.272%G +0.001% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -10.51%E -7.10%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -11.05%E -4.91%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -10.51%E -7.10%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +2.79%E +1.07%K +1.74%G +0.049% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -12.93%E -8.98%K -29.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85% | 1.3% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46% | 1.9% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |