Language:English
Sebastian Baez v Alexander Bublik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sebastian Baez (Local)
Prediction 42.50%2.35fair odd
EV -0.548%
Edge -0.234%
Kelly -0.409%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.91%42.54%42.31%44.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.232.3446.51%44.83%44.84%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Bublik (Visit)
Prediction 57.50%1.74fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.641%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.78%57.46%57.69%59.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.641.7262.50%60.76%60.98%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Baez (Local): 42.50%; Alexander Bublik (Visit): 57.50%. For Sebastian Baez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.34, with an expected value of -0.548%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -0.548%E -0.234%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -1.40%E -0.602%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -7.43%E -4.61%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 42.11%EV -1.82%E -0.789%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.89%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -2.25%E -0.977%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.25%E -0.977%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -3.10%E -1.36%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -3.10%E -1.36%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -3.52%E -1.55%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -2.25%E -1.32%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.80%E -2.14%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -5.22%E -2.34%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -5.22%E -2.34%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -7.43%E -4.61%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -5.22%E -2.34%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -7.43%E -4.61%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -5.65%E -2.54%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -5.65%E -2.54%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 15:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 15:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.28%E -3.85%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.43%E -4.61%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 15:21 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.00%E -5.00%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.00%E -5.00%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.00%E -5.00%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 15:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.00%E -5.00%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 15:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -6.92%E -3.16%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 15:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -7.35%E -3.37%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-08 15:21 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -7.77%E -3.58%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -1.10%E -0.641%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-08 15:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.62%E -4.01%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.25%E -1.32%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 15:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-05-08 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-05-08 15:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-05-08 15:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 0.9% | 2026-05-08 15:34 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21% | 1.6% | 2026-05-08 15:34 |
| Novig◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42% | 1.9% | 2026-05-08 15:39 |