مدرسة الاحتمالات

Sebastian Baez v Alexander Bublik

البداية: 2026-05-08 15:45 UTC

أسعار الإغلاق — الاحتمالات والقيمة المتوقعة المحسوبة من آخر الأسعار المسجلة قبل البداية وفق النموذج المحدد. بدأت المباراة، لذا فهذه ليست أرقامًا مباشرة. قيّم موثوقية التنبؤات الاحتمالية لكل نموذج بمقارنتها بنتائج جميع المباريات المحسومة →

نتيجة المباراة

62 شركة مراهنات (23 في التحليل )

الاحتمال المقدّر لكل نتيجة وفق النموذج: IQM

Sebastian Baez (المضيف)

التنبؤ 42.50%2.35السعر العادل
EV -0.548%
الأفضلية -0.234%
Kelly -0.409%
النمو +0.000%

بافتراض سعر أقصى قدره 2.34

توزيع تنبؤات شركات المراهنات
40.91%42.54%42.31%44.22%MINالمتوسطالوسيطMAX
توزيع الأسعار
2.152.232.232.3446.51%44.83%44.84%42.74%MINالمتوسطالوسيطMAX

Alexander Bublik (الضيف)

التنبؤ 57.50%1.74السعر العادل
EV -1.10%
الأفضلية -0.641%
Kelly -1.53%
النمو +0.000%

بافتراض سعر أقصى قدره 1.72

توزيع تنبؤات شركات المراهنات
55.78%57.46%57.69%59.09%MINالمتوسطالوسيطMAX
توزيع الأسعار
1.601.651.641.7262.50%60.76%60.98%58.14%MINالمتوسطالوسيطMAX

أسعار شركات المراهنات (62 شركة مراهنات)

لسنا تابعين لأي شركة مراهنات، ولا نحقق أي عائد من الرهانات أو المعاملات التي تُجرى لديها.

شركة المراهناتالمضيف ▼الضيفالهامشآخر تحديث
FanDuel2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -0.548%E -0.234%K -0.409%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-08 15:25
SportsBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -1.40%E -0.602%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -7.43%E -4.61%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 15:24
Pinnacle2.31I 43.29%NM 42.11%EV -1.82%E -0.789%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.89%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-08 15:25
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -2.25%E -0.977%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-08 15:24
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.25%E -0.977%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 15:24
LowVig.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -3.10%E -1.36%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-08 15:25
BetOnline.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -3.10%E -1.36%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-08 15:24
Coolbet2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -3.52%E -1.55%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -2.25%E -1.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-08 15:24
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 15:24
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 15:25
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 15:25
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 15:24
Hard Rock Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 15:25
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:24
Unibet (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:24
Casumo2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:24
Unibet (NL)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:24
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:24
LeoVegas (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:24
Grosvenor2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:24
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:25
Unibet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:25
TABtouch2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:25
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:25
Bally Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:24
betPARX2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:24
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 15:25
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 15:25
Caesars2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.37%E -1.94%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 15:24
DraftKings2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.80%E -2.14%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-08 15:25
PMU (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -5.22%E -2.34%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-08 15:24
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -5.22%E -2.34%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -7.43%E -4.61%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 15:24
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -5.22%E -2.34%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -7.43%E -4.61%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 15:24
Bet Right2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -5.65%E -2.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-08 15:25
Betclic (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -5.65%E -2.54%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -5.70%E -3.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 15:39
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 15:24
NordicBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 15:25
Betsson2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 15:24
ReBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.40%E -2.02%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 15:24
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 15:24
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 15:25
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 15:25
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 15:24
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 15:24
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.98%E -2.38%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 15:24
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-08 15:39
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-08 15:24
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.13%E -3.11%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 15:24
NetBet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.28%E -3.85%K -9.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 15:24
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 15:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 15:24
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 15:24
Fliff2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.85%E -4.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 15:24
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.43%E -4.61%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 15:21
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.00%E -5.00%K -13.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.00%E -5.00%K -13.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 15:25
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.00%E -5.00%K -13.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 15:25
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.50%E -2.95%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.00%E -5.00%K -13.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 15:29
GTbets2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -6.92%E -3.16%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 15:24
Codere (IT)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -7.35%E -3.37%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -4.55%E -2.74%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 15:21
1xBet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -7.77%E -3.58%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -1.10%E -0.641%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-08 15:29
Marathon Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.62%E -4.01%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.25%E -1.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 15:35
الهامش = الهامش · I = الاحتمال الضمني · NM = الاحتمال بلا هامش · EV = القيمة المتوقعة · E = الأفضلية · K = معيار Kelly · G = نمو رأس مال المراهنات

آخر تحديث هو وقت آخر تغيير أجرته كل شركة على سعرها؛ فالوقت الأقدم يعني أن السعر لم يتحرك فحسب، لا أنه متقادم. تُستبعد عادة الشركات التي لم تصل عنها بيانات خلال نحو 15 دقيقة؛ ولا تُعرض آخر الأسعار المسجلة بدلًا من ذلك إلا إذا انقطع تدفق بيانات السوق كله.

بورصات المراهنات (6)

شركة المراهناتالمضيفالضيفالهامش ▲آخر تحديث
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-05-08 15:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-05-08 15:40
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-05-08 15:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%0.9%2026-05-08 15:34
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%1.6%2026-05-08 15:34
Novig2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%1.9%2026-05-08 15:39