Language:English
Pablo Llamas Ruiz v Daniil Medvedev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local)
Prediction 34.02%2.94fair odd
EV +0.368%
Edge +0.125%
Kelly +0.189%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.49%34.04%34.01%35.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.752.9538.46%36.12%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visit)
Prediction 65.98%1.52fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -6.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.36%65.96%65.99%67.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.4771.43%69.49%69.44%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local): 34.02%; Daniil Medvedev (Visit): 65.98%. For Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.368%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV +0.368%E +0.125%K +0.189%G +0.001% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.31%E -4.45%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -0.652%E -0.223%K -0.340%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -6.97%E -4.95%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.56%EV -0.992%E -0.341%K -0.520%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.44%EV -3.01%E -2.05%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -1.33%E -0.460%K -0.701%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -3.67%E -2.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -1.33%E -0.460%K -0.701%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.67%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -1.33%E -0.460%K -0.701%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.97%E -4.95%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.01%E -0.699%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.63%E -5.45%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -3.03%E -1.06%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.03%E -1.06%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.63%E -5.45%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.37%E -1.19%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.37%E -1.19%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.37%E -1.19%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.19%EV -4.39%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.81%EV -3.67%E -2.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.65%E -3.95%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.65%E -3.95%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.65%E -3.95%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.65%E -3.95%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.31%E -4.45%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -3.67%E -2.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 14:53 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.65%E -3.95%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.31%E -4.45%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.44%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.63%E -5.45%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.00%EV -7.12%E -2.61%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.00%EV -3.01%E -2.05%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.14%E -3.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.33%E -2.99%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -8.14%E -3.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.65%E -3.95%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -8.14%E -3.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.65%E -3.95%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -8.14%E -3.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.65%E -3.95%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -8.14%E -3.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.65%E -3.95%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.14%E -3.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.31%E -4.45%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.14%E -3.01%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.63%E -5.45%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.86%E -4.14%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 14:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.86%E -4.14%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.86%E -4.14%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -11.54%E -4.44%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -11.54%E -4.44%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.99%E -3.47%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43% | 2.2% | 2026-05-11 14:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42% | 2.3% | 2026-05-11 14:54 |