Langue:Français
Matteo Arnaldi v Rafael Jodar
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prévision 24.97%4.00cote équitable
EV +2.40%
Avantage +0.584%
Kelly +0.773%
Croissance +0.019%
avec la cote maximale 4.10
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.22%25.17%24.75%28.73%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.303.733.754.1030.30%26.83%26.67%24.39%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Rafael Jodar (Visiteur)
Prévision 75.03%1.33cote équitable
EV -0.216%
Avantage -0.162%
Kelly -0.655%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.33
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
71.27%74.83%75.25%76.78%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.201.271.271.3383.33%78.87%78.74%75.19%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Matteo Arnaldi (Local) : 24.97% ; Rafael Jodar (Visiteur) : 75.03%. Pour Matteo Arnaldi (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.00. 2 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.10, soit une espérance positive de +2.40%.
Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +2.40%E +0.584%K +0.773%G +0.019% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.97%E -5.62%K -29.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 18:38 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.84%EV +2.15%E +0.525%K +0.694%G +0.015% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.16%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.60%E -0.667%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -2.60%E -0.667%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -9.97%E -8.31%K -49.85%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.61%EV -3.60%E -0.932%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.39%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.85%E -1.000%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.85%E -1.000%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -4.35%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -4.35%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.22%E -2.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.59%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.59%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.59%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -8.84%E -2.42%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.84%E -2.42%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -6.97%E -5.62%K -29.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 18:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -7.72%E -6.28%K -33.56%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -12.59%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -6.97%E -5.62%K -29.03%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -15.09%E -4.44%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.22%E -2.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -0.216%E -0.162%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -0.216%E -0.162%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -0.216%E -0.162%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -0.216%E -0.162%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (6)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Novig◎ | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.95% | 3.4% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |