La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Matteo Arnaldi v Rafael Jodar
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Predicción 24.97%4.00momio equitativo
EV +2.40%
Ventaja +0.584%
Kelly +0.773%
Crecimiento +0.019%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.22%25.17%24.75%28.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.733.754.1030.30%26.83%26.67%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Rafael Jodar (Visitante)
Predicción 75.03%1.33momio equitativo
EV -0.216%
Ventaja -0.162%
Kelly -0.655%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.27%74.83%75.25%76.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.201.271.271.3383.33%78.87%78.74%75.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +2.40%E +0.584%K +0.773%G +0.019% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.97%E -5.62%K -29.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 18:38 |
| Pinnacle | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.84%EV +2.15%E +0.525%K +0.694%G +0.015% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.16%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Coolbet | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| FanDuel | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Betway | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |
| Paddy Power | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.102%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.60%E -0.667%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -2.60%E -0.667%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -9.97%E -8.31%K -49.85%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| DraftKings | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.61%EV -3.60%E -0.932%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.39%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.85%E -1.000%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| theScore Bet | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.85%E -1.000%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -4.35%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -4.35%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Bet Right | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| NordicBet | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betsson | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| BoyleSports | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.22%E -2.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Unibet | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Casumo | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| LeoVegas | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Grosvenor | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| BetRivers | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| TABtouch | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| betPARX | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Bally Bet | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |
| BetMGM | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.59%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.59%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Coral | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.59%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| PMU (FR) | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -8.84%E -2.42%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.72%E -3.71%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Fanatics | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.84%E -2.42%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -6.97%E -5.62%K -29.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| PlayUp | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| BetUS | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.97%E -3.10%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 18:44 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Neds | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| TAB | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.47%E -4.34%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.22%E -4.97%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -7.72%E -6.28%K -33.56%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |
| Fliff | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -12.59%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -6.97%E -5.62%K -29.03%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Caesars | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -15.09%E -4.44%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.22%E -2.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |
| 888sport | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -0.216%E -0.162%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| William Hill | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -0.216%E -0.162%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -0.216%E -0.162%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -0.216%E -0.162%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-10 18:50 |
| Matchbook | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Smarkets | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 18:49 |
| Novig | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.95% | 3.4% | 2026-05-10 18:48 |