Language:English
Marcos Giron v Marin Cilic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marcos Giron (Local)
Prediction 41.24%2.42fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%41.29%41.33%42.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.3646.51%43.68%43.48%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marin Cilic (Visit)
Prediction 58.76%1.70fair odd
EV -0.693%
Edge -0.410%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.03%58.71%58.67%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.611.621.6964.52%61.93%61.73%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marcos Giron (Local): 41.24%; Marin Cilic (Visit): 58.76%. For Marin Cilic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.69, with an expected value of -0.693%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -2.68%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -3.63%E -2.21%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -2.68%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -3.63%E -2.21%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -2.68%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.09%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.04%E -1.84%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -3.09%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -3.63%E -2.21%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.09%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.50%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.33%E -1.87%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.33%E -1.87%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.74%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -4.74%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.04%E -1.84%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 10:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:48 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-07 10:46 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-07 10:46 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-07 10:46 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.57%E -4.13%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.57%E -4.13%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.16%E -4.53%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.92%E -5.75%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.46%EV -5.56%E -2.43%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.54%EV -0.693%E -0.410%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.98%E -2.62%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.98%E -2.62%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.21%E -3.21%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.04%E -1.84%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.21%E -3.21%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.21%E -3.21%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.39%E -3.35%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.21%E -3.21%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.21%E -3.21%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.21%E -3.21%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 10:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.28%E -4.22%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.28%E -4.22%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.28%E -4.22%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 10:47 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.28%E -4.22%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.28%E -4.22%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.98%E -3.74%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -9.28%E -4.22%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -7.74%E -4.93%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -11.34%E -5.27%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -4.81%E -2.97%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-07 10:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 0.7% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 0.7% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 0.7% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64% | 2.4% | 2026-05-07 10:50 |
| Novig◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55% | 3.9% | 2026-05-07 10:45 |