Language:English
Lorenzo Musetti v Francisco Cerundolo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lorenzo Musetti (Local)
Prediction 51.51%1.94fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.844%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.58%51.53%52.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.841.851.9157.14%54.36%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Francisco Cerundolo (Visit)
Prediction 48.49%2.06fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.26%48.42%48.47%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.951.952.0253.48%51.34%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lorenzo Musetti (Local): 51.51%; Francisco Cerundolo (Visit): 48.49%. For Lorenzo Musetti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -1.61%E -0.844%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-10 07:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -3.67%E -1.96%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -2.05%E -1.02%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.67%E -1.96%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.67%E -1.96%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.67%E -1.96%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.33%E -4.99%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 13:37 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.67%E -1.96%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.33%E -4.99%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -4.19%E -2.25%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-10 12:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.19%E -2.25%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.99%E -2.02%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.19%E -2.25%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.96%E -2.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 11:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.19%E -2.25%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.96%E -2.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 11:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -4.19%E -2.25%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.19%E -2.25%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.99%E -2.02%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 09:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.99%E -2.02%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 01:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 02:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 01:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 01:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 11:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.39%E -3.87%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -5.22%E -2.84%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.48%E -2.27%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -5.22%E -2.84%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.48%E -2.27%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.22%E -2.84%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.96%E -2.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.99%E -2.02%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 12:52 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.42%E -3.33%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.80%EV -6.90%E -3.60%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.39%E -3.87%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 08:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.39%E -3.87%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.39%E -3.87%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -8.84%E -4.70%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -5.73%E -3.13%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -8.84%E -4.70%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 00:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -6.25%E -3.43%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -2.05%E -1.02%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.25%E -3.43%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.25%E -3.43%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -6.25%E -3.43%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -6.25%E -3.43%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.25%E -3.43%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.90%E -3.60%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 12:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.25%E -3.43%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.90%E -3.60%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -6.76%E -3.74%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -2.05%E -1.02%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.28%E -4.04%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.28%E -4.04%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 12:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.28%E -4.04%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.39%E -3.87%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 12:17 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.28%E -4.04%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.39%E -3.87%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.28%E -4.04%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.87%E -4.14%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 13:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -9.85%E -5.63%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-10 12:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.87% | 0.3% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.87% | 0.3% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Novig◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.52% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 48.48% | 1.6% | 2026-05-10 12:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60% | 1.9% | 2026-05-10 12:55 |