Language:English
Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jannik Sinner (Local)
Prediction 89.67%1.12fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -39.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.85%89.52%89.46%91.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.061.061.0898.04%94.37%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visit)
Prediction 10.33%9.68fair odd
EV +13.67%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.187%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.79%10.48%10.54%13.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.559.9011.0014.29%10.47%10.10%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jannik Sinner (Local): 89.67%; Daniil Medvedev (Visit): 10.33%. For Daniil Medvedev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.68. 27 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.67%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +13.67%E +1.24%K +1.37%G +0.187% | 3.4% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.78%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 10.54I 9.49%NM 9.22%EV +8.92%E +0.846%K +0.935%G +0.083% | 2.9% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.75%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.25%EV +8.50%E +0.810%K +0.895%G +0.076% | 3.0% | 2026-05-15 17:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.79%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 10.45I 9.57%NM 9.21%EV +7.99%E +0.764%K +0.845%G +0.068% | 3.9% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.79%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 10.45I 9.57%NM 9.21%EV +7.99%E +0.764%K +0.845%G +0.068% | 3.9% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +3.34%E +0.334%K +0.371%G +0.012% | 4.3% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.85%E -5.57%K -117.01%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +3.34%E +0.334%K +0.371%G +0.012% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.85%E -5.57%K -117.01%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +3.34%E +0.334%K +0.371%G +0.012% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.75%E -6.49%K -168.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +3.34%E +0.334%K +0.371%G +0.012% | 6.2% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -7.64%E -7.42%K -254.79%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +3.34%E +0.334%K +0.371%G +0.012% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -7.64%E -7.42%K -254.79%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +3.34%E +0.334%K +0.371%G +0.012% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 90.16%EV -3.16%E -2.93%K -39.51%G +0.000% | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.84%EV +2.30%E +0.233%K +0.259%G +0.006% | 2.7% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.33%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.67%EV +2.30%E +0.233%K +0.259%G +0.006% | 4.4% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.85%E -5.57%K -117.01%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -4.41%E -0.477%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-15 17:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 89.97%EV -8.54%E -8.37%K -427.02%G +0.000% | 9.15I 10.93%NM 10.03%EV -5.45%E -0.595%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -3.16%E -2.93%K -39.51%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV -7.00%E -0.777%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -7.00%E -0.777%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-15 17:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -7.00%E -0.777%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.00%E -0.777%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.00%E -0.777%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.00%E -0.777%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.00%E -0.777%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.75%E -6.49%K -168.68%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -7.00%E -0.777%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -12.16%E -1.43%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -12.16%E -1.43%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -12.16%E -1.43%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.16%E -1.43%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.16%E -1.43%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.70%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.30%EV -13.20%E -1.57%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.71%EV -5.85%E -5.57%K -117.01%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.29%EV -14.75%E -1.79%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-15 17:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.71%EV -5.85%E -5.57%K -117.01%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.29%EV -14.75%E -1.79%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-15 17:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -17.33%E -2.17%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-15 17:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -17.33%E -2.17%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-15 17:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.33%E -2.17%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.33%E -2.17%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.97%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -19.91%E -2.57%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.16%E -2.93%K -39.51%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -22.50%E -3.00%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.06%E -3.79%K -57.96%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -22.50%E -3.00%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 17:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -4.95%E -4.67%K -82.56%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -27.66%E -3.95%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-15 17:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 0.6% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 0.6% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 0.6% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 0.6% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Novig◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.59% | 11.76I 8.50%NM 8.41% | 1.1% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.88% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.12% | 2.7% | 2026-05-15 17:21 |