Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Andrea Pellegrino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 67.00%1.49fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -6.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.53%66.99%67.06%68.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.411.401.4574.07%70.97%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Andrea Pellegrino (Visit)
Prediction 33.00%3.03fair odd
EV -0.352%
Edge -0.117%
Kelly -0.174%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.40%33.01%32.94%34.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.903.0237.04%34.75%34.48%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 67.00%; Andrea Pellegrino (Visit): 33.00%. For Andrea Pellegrino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.02, with an expected value of -0.352%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -2.84%E -1.96%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -6.29%E -2.22%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -2.84%E -1.96%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -6.29%E -2.22%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.51%E -2.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -3.51%E -2.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -4.64%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.51%E -2.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.26%E -3.37%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.51%E -2.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.26%E -3.37%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.51%E -2.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.26%E -3.37%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.51%E -2.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.26%E -3.37%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.51%E -2.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.26%E -3.37%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.18%E -2.93%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.61%E -2.72%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-11 10:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.28%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.72%EV -3.65%E -1.25%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 11:03 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-11 10:43 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.96%E -2.09%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.96%E -2.09%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.96%E -2.09%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.61%E -2.72%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -10.91%E -4.04%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -10.91%E -4.04%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.85%E -3.42%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -10.91%E -4.04%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -5.52%E -3.92%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -0.352%E -0.117%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.10%EV -5.52%E -3.92%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.90%EV -0.682%E -0.227%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-11 10:42 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.52%E -3.92%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.52%E -3.92%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.52%E -3.92%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.25%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.75%EV -0.682%E -0.227%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.01%E -0.337%K -0.506%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.97%E -1.73%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.96%E -2.09%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.96%E -2.09%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.61%E -2.72%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.26%E -3.37%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.26%E -3.37%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-11 10:41 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.26%E -3.37%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.19%E -4.42%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.26%E -3.37%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.53%E -5.46%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.53%E -5.46%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.53%E -5.46%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -8.20%E -5.99%K -22.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -4.31%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 10:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -9.54%E -7.07%K -27.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -2.66%E -0.902%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-11 10:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93% | 0.2% | 2026-05-11 11:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-05-11 11:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 11:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 11:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.89% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 33.11% | 1.7% | 2026-05-11 11:04 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79% | 2.1% | 2026-05-11 11:05 |