Language:English
Flavio Cobolli v Thiago Agustin Tirante
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Flavio Cobolli (Local)
Prediction 68.19%1.47fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -5.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%68.06%68.23%68.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.401.401.4374.07%71.61%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit)
Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.445%
Kelly -0.657%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.11%31.94%31.77%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.942.903.1036.36%34.03%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flavio Cobolli (Local): 68.19%; Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit): 31.81%. For Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%EV -2.49%E -1.74%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%EV -1.38%E -0.445%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-11 16:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -2.49%E -1.74%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-11 06:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -2.49%E -1.74%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 16:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.17%E -2.24%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-11 16:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.17%E -2.24%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -5.20%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-11 16:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.17%E -2.24%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.38%E -0.445%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-11 16:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.82%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.18%EV -1.70%E -0.550%K -0.813%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -3.61%E -1.19%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-11 16:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -3.61%E -1.19%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-11 16:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 16:43 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -6.47%E -2.20%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 16:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 16:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 16:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 16:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 16:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.38%E -2.91%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 16:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 16:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 16:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 16:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -3.29%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 16:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 16:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 16:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 16:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 16:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 16:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 16:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 16:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 20:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 16:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-10 09:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.58%E -4.81%K -17.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 16:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-11 16:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.18%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.38%E -2.91%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-11 16:42 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.95%E -5.89%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 21:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |
| Novig◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.66% | 0.9% | 2026-05-11 16:42 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43% | 2.7% | 2026-05-11 16:44 |