L’École des cotes

Flavio Cobolli v Thiago Agustin Tirante

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-11 17:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

62 opérateurs (23 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Flavio Cobolli (Local)

Prévision 68.19%1.47cote équitable
EV -2.49%
Avantage -1.74%
Kelly -5.80%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.43

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
66.27%68.06%68.23%68.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.351.401.401.4374.07%71.61%71.43%69.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visiteur)

Prévision 31.81%3.14cote équitable
EV -1.38%
Avantage -0.445%
Kelly -0.657%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.11%31.94%31.77%33.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.752.942.903.1036.36%34.03%34.48%32.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (62 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%EV -2.49%E -1.74%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%EV -1.38%E -0.445%K -0.657%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-11 16:10
Betclic (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -2.49%E -1.74%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-11 06:24
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -2.49%E -1.74%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-10 16:49
Coolbet1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.17%E -2.24%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-11 16:09
1xBet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.17%E -2.24%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -5.20%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-11 16:45
Hard Rock Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.17%E -2.24%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-11 12:09
BetRivers1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
Svenska Spel1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
Unibet (NL)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:10
LeoVegas1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
Unibet1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
Casumo1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
Grosvenor1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
TABtouch1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:10
Bally Bet1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
betPARX1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
ATG (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.73%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 12:09
Winamax (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.38%E -0.445%K -0.657%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-11 16:09
BetUS1.40I 71.43%NM 68.82%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.18%EV -1.70%E -0.550%K -0.813%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-11 16:44
LowVig.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -3.61%E -1.19%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-11 16:45
BetOnline.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -3.61%E -1.19%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-11 16:45
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-11 16:43
NordicBet1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-11 16:44
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-11 16:44
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -6.47%E -2.20%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 16:44
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 20:49
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 16:09
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 16:10
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 16:09
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 16:20
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 16:19
PMU (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.38%E -2.91%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 12:10
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 16:50
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 16:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 16:50
Betsson1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 16:45
FanDuel1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 16:30
ReBet1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 16:44
DraftKings1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -3.29%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-11 16:10
Bet Right1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 16:45
Winamax (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 16:10
Betr (AU)1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 16:29
Codere (IT)1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 16:44
SportsBet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -2.97%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 16:30
Unibet (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 16:10
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 16:29
Fanatics1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 16:45
theScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 16:45
GTbets1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 20:49
TAB1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 16:44
Fliff1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 16:39
Caesars1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 09:55
LiveScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 12:09
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 12:09
NetBet (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.58%E -4.81%K -17.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 16:44
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 16:30
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-11 16:10
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.38%E -2.91%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 16:42
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.95%E -5.89%K -22.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-05-11 16:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-05-11 16:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-05-11 16:44
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-05-11 16:44
Novig1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%3.13I 31.95%NM 31.66%0.9%2026-05-11 16:42
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%2.7%2026-05-11 16:44