Language:English
Cristian Garin v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cristian Garin (Local)
Prediction 41.11%2.43fair odd
EV +0.301%
Edge +0.123%
Kelly +0.209%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.15%41.34%41.10%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.4446.51%43.75%43.48%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visit)
Prediction 58.89%1.70fair odd
EV -0.471%
Edge -0.279%
Kelly -0.682%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%58.66%58.90%60.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.621.6964.52%61.81%61.73%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cristian Garin (Local): 41.11%; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visit): 58.89%. For Cristian Garin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.301%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.15%EV +0.301%E +0.123%K +0.209%G +0.001% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.85%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.34%E -0.560%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.77%E -3.61%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 06:47 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -2.58%E -1.09%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -6.36%E -4.00%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 09:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -2.99%E -1.27%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -5.18%E -3.22%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 21:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.40%E -1.45%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-08 21:18 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.40%E -1.45%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 06:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.40%E -1.45%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.18%E -3.22%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.40%E -1.45%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.77%E -3.61%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 21:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.22%E -1.81%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.22%E -1.81%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.77%E -3.61%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:48 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -4.63%E -2.00%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -1.65%E -0.987%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.63%E -2.00%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.63%E -2.00%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-08 21:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.63%E -2.00%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-08 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -5.04%E -2.18%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 04:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.18%E -3.22%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 07:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.77%E -3.61%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.77%E -3.61%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 21:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.36%E -4.00%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 21:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.36%E -4.00%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 07:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.95%E -4.40%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 21:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.45%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.72%E -5.62%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -5.86%E -2.56%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -5.18%E -3.22%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -6.28%E -2.75%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -0.471%E -0.279%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.28%E -2.75%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.00%E -2.46%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.83%E -1.71%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.00%E -2.46%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.18%E -3.22%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.77%E -3.61%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.77%E -3.61%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.36%E -4.00%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -6.95%E -4.40%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-09 07:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -6.95%E -4.40%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-09 07:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-09 07:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-09 07:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 21:22 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -7.92%E -3.54%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -0.471%E -0.279%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -7.92%E -3.54%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -0.471%E -0.279%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.56%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.65%E -0.987%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 05:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.56%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.65%E -0.987%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.56%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.65%E -0.987%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.56%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.65%E -0.987%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.56%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.65%E -0.987%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.56%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -2.83%E -1.71%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -11.62%E -5.40%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -2.83%E -1.71%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -11.62%E -5.40%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -4.59%E -2.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16% | 0.0% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16% | 0.0% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16% | 0.0% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 0.4% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |
| Novig◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 11:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.1% | 2026-05-09 11:50 |