Language:English
Casper Ruud v Luciano Darderi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Casper Ruud (Local)
Prediction 68.26%1.46fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -5.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.53%68.16%68.29%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.391.401.4374.63%71.72%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luciano Darderi (Visit)
Prediction 31.74%3.15fair odd
EV -0.029%
Edge -0.009%
Kelly -0.014%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.49%31.84%31.71%34.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.973.003.1537.04%33.70%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casper Ruud (Local): 68.26%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 31.74%. For Luciano Darderi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.151. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.150, with an expected value of -0.029%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.38%E -1.67%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -2.38%E -1.67%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -9.23%E -3.23%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-15 13:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.79%EV -3.07%E -2.16%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.21%EV -0.664%E -0.212%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58%EV -3.07%E -2.16%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42%EV -1.62%E -0.521%K -0.770%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.07%E -2.16%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.07%E -2.16%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.07%E -2.16%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.07%E -2.16%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -7.96%E -2.75%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-15 13:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.07%E -2.16%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.31%E -5.30%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:33 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.75%E -2.66%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.62%E -0.521%K -0.770%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.25%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.75%EV -4.47%E -1.49%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-15 13:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -6.69%E -2.28%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.96%E -2.75%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.60%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -9.55%E -3.35%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.72%E -4.63%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.72%E -4.63%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.72%E -4.63%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.72%E -4.63%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.72%E -4.63%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -5.11%E -3.68%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -0.029%E -0.009%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-15 13:41 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.11%E -3.68%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.11%E -3.68%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.11%E -3.68%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.11%E -3.68%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.96%E -2.75%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-15 13:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -1.62%E -0.521%K -0.770%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-15 13:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.16%E -5.27%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.62%E -0.521%K -0.770%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-15 13:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.16%E -5.27%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.16%E -5.27%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.96%E -2.75%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-15 13:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.16%E -5.27%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -9.55%E -3.35%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -7.84%E -5.81%K -22.41%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.54%EV -2.57%E -0.837%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-15 13:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -8.53%E -6.36%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -3.20%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.18% | 0.2% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 0.2% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-05-15 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-05-15 13:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.06% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.94% | 2.0% | 2026-05-15 13:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42% | 2.7% | 2026-05-15 13:35 |