Language:English
Sebastian Korda v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sebastian Korda (Local)
Prediction 40.11%2.49fair odd
EV +7.10%
Edge +2.66%
Kelly +4.25%
Growth +0.302%
assuming max odds 2.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.66%40.46%40.20%45.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.332.312.6748.54%42.97%43.29%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 59.89%1.67fair odd
EV +4.80%
Edge +2.74%
Kelly +6.40%
Growth +0.307%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.31%59.54%59.80%64.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.591.581.7567.57%63.04%63.09%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Korda (Local): 40.11%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 59.89%. For Sebastian Korda (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.67, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.10%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -16.56%E -7.96%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV +4.80%E +2.74%K +6.40%G +0.307% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -17.37%E -8.43%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV +3.60%E +2.08%K +4.94%G +0.178% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -15.76%E -7.51%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +2.41%E +1.41%K +3.39%G +0.081% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -15.76%E -7.51%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +0.010%E +0.006%K +0.015%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -15.76%E -7.51%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +0.010%E +0.006%K +0.015%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -15.76%E -7.51%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +0.010%E +0.006%K +0.015%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.19%E -0.720%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -13.76%E -6.40%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -1.19%E -0.720%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -13.76%E -6.40%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -1.19%E -0.720%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -8.54%E -3.75%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -2.39%E -1.46%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.74%E -4.33%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.72%E -0.702%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.72%E -0.702%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.94%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.94%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.94%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.94%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.94%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -11.75%E -5.34%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -15.76%E -7.51%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -3.58%E -2.23%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -8.54%E -3.75%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -8.54%E -3.75%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -8.54%E -3.75%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -0.116%E -0.047%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.78%E -3.01%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-07 23:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.38%E -3.41%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -9.74%E -4.33%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.38%E -3.41%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV +2.29%E +0.898%K +1.48%G +0.034% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -5.98%E -3.81%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-07 23:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.98%E -3.81%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 23:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.98%E -3.81%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.98%E -3.81%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -11.75%E -5.34%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -5.98%E -3.81%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -9.74%E -4.33%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -6.58%E -4.22%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -10.55%E -4.73%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -6.58%E -4.22%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -11.75%E -5.34%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -6.58%E -4.22%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%EV +1.09%E +0.431%K +0.715%G +0.008% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV -7.18%E -4.63%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-07 23:33 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.73%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.18%E -4.63%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 23:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.18%E -4.63%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.285%E +0.114%K +0.190%G +0.001% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -7.78%E -5.05%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -0.517%E -0.209%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -7.78%E -5.05%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 23:38 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -1.72%E -0.702%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.37%E -5.47%K -15.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -1.72%E -0.702%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.37%E -5.47%K -15.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 23:38 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV +1.49%E +0.588%K +0.973%G +0.014% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -8.97%E -5.90%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 23:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -3.73%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -8.97%E -5.90%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -3.73%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -8.97%E -5.90%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 23:38 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -3.73%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -8.97%E -5.90%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 23:38 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +2.29%E +0.898%K +1.48%G +0.034% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -9.57%E -6.34%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 23:32 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +0.285%E +0.114%K +0.190%G +0.001% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -9.57%E -6.34%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 23:26 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 37.94%EV -0.919%E -0.372%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.06%EV -9.57%E -6.34%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 23:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +2.29%E +0.898%K +1.48%G +0.034% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -10.17%E -6.78%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 23:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.73%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -10.17%E -6.78%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-07 23:37 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV +7.10%E +2.66%K +4.25%G +0.302% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -11.37%E -7.68%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 23:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.24% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.76% | 0.2% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 0.5% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| Novig◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 23:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.19% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.81% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |