Language:English
Mattia Bellucci v Gabriel Diallo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mattia Bellucci (Local)
Prediction 46.41%2.15fair odd
EV +2.11%
Edge +0.958%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.037%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%46.22%46.53%48.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.002.002.2052.36%49.89%50.00%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gabriel Diallo (Visit)
Prediction 53.59%1.87fair odd
EV -0.864%
Edge -0.467%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.70%53.78%53.47%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.771.781.8562.11%56.47%56.18%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mattia Bellucci (Local): 46.41%; Gabriel Diallo (Visit): 53.59%. For Mattia Bellucci (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.11%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +2.11%E +0.958%K +1.76%G +0.037% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -13.72%E -8.52%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV +1.18%E +0.541%K +1.000%G +0.012% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -10.51%E -6.29%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 21:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.53%E -1.21%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.22%E -3.56%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 21:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.53%E -1.21%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.29%E -4.22%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 21:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.80%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.20%EV -1.94%E -1.06%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-04 21:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -4.39%E -2.13%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -4.61%E -2.59%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -4.39%E -2.13%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.69%E -3.23%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.85%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.22%E -3.56%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 21:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.85%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.76%E -3.88%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.85%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -7.29%E -4.22%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.85%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.90%E -5.24%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 21:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.85%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.90%E -5.24%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.85%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.90%E -5.24%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 21:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.85%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.90%E -5.24%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 21:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -5.32%E -2.61%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -5.32%E -2.61%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.08%E -2.28%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 21:37 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.78%E -2.85%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.08%E -2.28%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.14%EV -5.78%E -2.85%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.86%EV -10.51%E -6.29%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 21:43 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.25%E -3.09%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 21:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.25%E -3.09%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.25%E -3.09%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -6.25%E -3.09%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.22%E -3.56%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-04 21:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.94%E -1.06%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-04 21:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.15%E -2.91%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 20:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.15%E -2.91%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 21:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.15%E -2.91%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.15%E -2.91%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.29%E -4.22%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.17%E -3.59%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.37%E -4.89%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-04 21:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -8.10%E -4.09%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -0.864%E -0.467%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -8.10%E -4.09%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -0.864%E -0.467%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -8.10%E -4.09%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 21:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -8.57%E -4.35%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -2.47%E -1.36%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -8.57%E -4.35%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -2.47%E -1.36%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -8.57%E -4.35%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -2.47%E -1.36%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -8.57%E -4.35%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -2.47%E -1.36%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -8.57%E -4.35%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -2.47%E -1.36%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -8.57%E -4.35%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -2.47%E -1.36%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -8.57%E -4.35%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -6.22%E -3.56%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-04 21:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -9.03%E -4.61%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -6.22%E -3.56%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -4.61%E -2.59%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -4.61%E -2.59%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-04 21:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -8.37%E -4.89%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -9.96%E -5.13%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.70%EV -9.96%E -5.13%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.30%EV -8.90%E -5.24%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%EV -10.89%E -5.67%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%EV -4.61%E -2.59%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.96%EV -11.35%E -5.94%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.04%EV -5.69%E -3.23%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 0.7% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89% | 0.9% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |