Language:English
Matteo Berrettini v Alexander Zverev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Berrettini (Local)
Prediction 21.40%4.67fair odd
EV +6.77%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +1.70%
Growth +0.115%
assuming max odds 4.99
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.12%21.43%21.33%24.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.354.354.9926.67%23.01%22.99%20.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Zverev (Visit)
Prediction 78.60%1.27fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -6.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.15%78.57%78.67%80.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.211.221.2586.96%82.72%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 21.40%; Alexander Zverev (Visit): 78.60%. For Matteo Berrettini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.77%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.12%EV +6.77%E +1.36%K +1.70%G +0.115% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.88%EV -7.25%E -6.14%K -40.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV +2.70%E +0.563%K +0.711%G +0.019% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%EV -4.89%E -4.04%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV +2.49%E +0.520%K +0.657%G +0.016% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -6.46%E -5.43%K -34.01%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV +0.564%E +0.120%K +0.152%G +0.001% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -9.61%E -8.35%K -64.04%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -1.58%E -0.343%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.89%E -4.04%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.58%E -0.343%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.58%E -0.343%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.01%EV -2.65%E -0.581%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.99%EV -4.89%E -4.04%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 19:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -2.65%E -0.581%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 19:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-06 19:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 19:16 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.25%E -6.14%K -40.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 19:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.03%E -6.87%K -47.26%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.03%E -6.87%K -47.26%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -3.72%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.03%E -6.87%K -47.26%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -4.79%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.41I 22.68%NM 22.08%EV -5.64%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.92%EV -1.75%E -1.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-06 19:16 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.86%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:16 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.93%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 19:13 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.89%E -4.04%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 19:13 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.89%E -4.04%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 19:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.68%E -4.73%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 19:07 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -8.03%E -6.87%K -47.26%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -8.64%E -2.02%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -3.32%E -2.70%K -14.42%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.06%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.06%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 19:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.06%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 19:12 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -4.89%E -4.04%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.25%E -6.14%K -40.27%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -12.27%E -2.99%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -8.03%E -6.87%K -47.26%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-06 19:11 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.53%E -2.04%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.10%E -3.36%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -19.76%E -5.27%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -2.53%E -2.04%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 19:12 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -19.76%E -5.27%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -2.53%E -2.04%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 19:12 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 0.3% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 19:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Novig◎ | 4.57I 21.88%NM 21.48% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.52% | 1.9% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26% | 2.2% | 2026-03-06 19:15 |