Language:English
Matteo Berrettini v Adrian Mannarino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Berrettini (Local)
Prediction 66.43%1.51fair odd
EV -0.349%
Edge -0.233%
Kelly -0.699%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.77%66.23%66.36%67.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.431.441.5072.99%70.01%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adrian Mannarino (Visit)
Prediction 33.57%2.98fair odd
EV -0.644%
Edge -0.218%
Kelly -0.329%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.34%33.77%33.64%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.582.772.752.9638.76%36.09%36.36%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 66.43%; Adrian Mannarino (Visit): 33.57%. For Matteo Berrettini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.50, with an expected value of -0.349%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -0.349%E -0.233%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -11.39%E -4.31%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 23:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.12%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.88%EV -0.644%E -0.218%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -11.05%E -4.17%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-04 23:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -4.67%E -1.65%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.06%E -4.60%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.06%E -4.60%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.06%E -4.60%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.06%E -4.60%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -12.73%E -4.90%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-04 23:06 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -12.73%E -4.90%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-04 23:06 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.00%E -3.50%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-04 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.00%E -3.50%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 23:06 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.00%E -3.50%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -9.37%E -3.47%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -3.33%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 23:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -4.67%E -1.65%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 23:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 23:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 23:06 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 23:07 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -9.37%E -3.47%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -12.73%E -4.90%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.33%E -4.49%K -15.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -0.980%E -0.332%K -0.502%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.33%E -4.49%K -15.43%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 23:01 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 22:58 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.37%E -3.47%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.82%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.18%EV -13.40%E -5.19%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-04 23:08 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -7.66%E -5.51%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -8.32%E -6.03%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 23:06 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -8.99%E -6.56%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.42% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.58% | 3.0% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |