Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Matteo Berrettini v Adrian Mannarino

Início: 2026-03-04 23:15 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

58 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Matteo Berrettini (Local)

Previsão 66.43%1.51odd justa
EV -0.349%
Vantagem -0.233%
Kelly -0.699%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
63.77%66.23%66.36%67.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.371.431.441.5072.99%70.01%69.44%66.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Adrian Mannarino (Visitante)

Previsão 33.57%2.98odd justa
EV -0.644%
Vantagem -0.218%
Kelly -0.329%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.96

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.34%33.77%33.64%36.23%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.582.772.752.9638.76%36.09%36.36%33.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 66.43%; Adrian Mannarino (Visitante): 33.57%. Para Matteo Berrettini (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.51. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 1.50, com valor esperado de -0.349%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (58 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -0.349%E -0.233%K -0.699%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -11.39%E -4.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-04 23:05
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.12%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.88%EV -0.644%E -0.218%K -0.329%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-04 23:10
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-04 23:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 23:10
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 23:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 23:10
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -3.67%E -2.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -11.05%E -4.17%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-04 23:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-04 23:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-04 23:10
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -4.67%E -1.65%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-04 23:10
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-04 23:10
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:05
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Bally Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.06%E -4.60%K -7.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 23:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.06%E -4.60%K -7.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 23:10
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.06%E -4.60%K -7.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 23:10
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.06%E -4.60%K -7.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -12.73%E -4.90%K -7.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-04 23:06
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.34%E -3.01%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -12.73%E -4.90%K -7.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-04 23:06
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.00%E -3.50%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-04 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.00%E -3.50%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 23:06
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.00%E -3.50%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -9.37%E -3.47%K -5.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 23:10
GTbets🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -3.33%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-04 23:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-04 23:10
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-04 23:10
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -4.67%E -1.65%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-04 23:10
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 23:09
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 23:09
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 23:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.01%E -2.15%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 23:06
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 23:07
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -9.37%E -3.47%K -5.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 23:10
Fliff🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -5.66%E -3.99%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -12.73%E -4.90%K -7.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-04 23:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.33%E -4.49%K -15.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -0.980%E -0.332%K -0.502%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.33%E -4.49%K -15.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 23:01
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.66%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 22:58
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-04 23:10
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 23:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.69%E -2.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 23:10
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.37%E -3.47%K -5.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-04 23:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.82%EV -6.99%E -4.99%K -17.48%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.18%EV -13.40%E -5.19%K -8.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 23:08
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -7.66%E -5.51%K -19.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 23:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -8.32%E -6.03%K -21.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 23:06
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -8.99%E -6.56%K -24.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 23:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%0.4%2026-03-04 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%0.4%2026-03-04 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%0.4%2026-03-04 23:10
Smarkets1.44I 69.44%NM 67.42%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.58%3.0%2026-03-04 23:10