Language:English
Lorenzo Musetti v Marton Fucsovics
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lorenzo Musetti (Local)
Prediction 72.47%1.38fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.51%72.29%72.48%73.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.311.311.3678.74%76.15%76.34%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marton Fucsovics (Visit)
Prediction 27.53%3.63fair odd
EV +0.225%
Edge +0.062%
Kelly +0.085%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.17%27.71%27.52%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.433.453.6432.26%29.17%28.99%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lorenzo Musetti (Local): 72.47%; Marton Fucsovics (Visit): 27.53%. For Marton Fucsovics (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.225%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.83%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.17%EV +0.225%E +0.062%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -0.876%E -0.243%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 20:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -0.876%E -0.243%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -0.876%E -0.243%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 20:46 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.75%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -2.25%E -0.635%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -2.25%E -0.635%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.25%E -0.635%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.25%E -0.635%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.25%E -0.635%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.25%E -0.635%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.25%E -0.635%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.25%E -0.635%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 20:46 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.54%EV -2.90%E -2.16%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.46%EV -2.53%E -0.714%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.43%EV -2.90%E -2.16%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.57%EV -3.08%E -0.875%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.82%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.18%EV -3.35%E -0.956%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.63%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-06 20:53 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.63%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.63%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.63%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -3.90%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -3.90%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:56 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 20:46 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 20:46 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -5.01%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.58%EV -5.28%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.06%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.94%EV -5.56%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 20:52 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-06 20:46 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.97%E -6.27%K -29.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.76%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.76%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 20:46 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.76%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 20:56 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.14%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.14%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 20:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.14%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.14%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.79%E -4.46%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 20:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.45%E -1.06%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.64%E -4.72%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.45%E -1.06%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.64%E -4.72%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.45%E -1.06%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.64%E -4.72%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.45%E -1.06%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.64%E -4.72%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.64%E -4.72%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.07% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.93% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 2.4% | 2026-03-06 20:45 |