Language:English
Denis Shapovalov v Jannik Sinner
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Denis Shapovalov (Local)
Prediction 7.83%12.77fair odd
EV +22.13%
Edge +1.42%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.335%
assuming max odds 15.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.23%8.00%7.90%10.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5012.3712.5615.6011.76%8.08%7.96%6.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jannik Sinner (Visit)
Prediction 92.17%1.08fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -3.07%
Kelly -64.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.10%92.00%92.10%93.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.031.031.0598.04%96.88%97.09%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denis Shapovalov (Local): 7.83%; Jannik Sinner (Visit): 92.17%. For Denis Shapovalov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.77. 25 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.13%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 15.60I 6.41%NM 6.25%EV +22.13%E +1.42%K +1.52%G +0.335% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.75%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.23%EV +21.34%E +1.38%K +1.47%G +0.314% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.77%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-08 22:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-08 22:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 22:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 22:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 21:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 14.61I 6.84%NM 6.70%EV +14.38%E +0.984%K +1.06%G +0.152% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.30%EV -3.22%E -3.07%K -64.40%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.69%EV +13.51%E +0.932%K +1.00%G +0.135% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.31%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-08 21:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 13.80I 7.25%NM 6.88%EV +8.03%E +0.582%K +0.628%G +0.050% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.12%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 22:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +5.69%E +0.421%K +0.455%G +0.026% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-08 22:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -3.22%E -3.07%K -64.40%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-08 21:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-08 22:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 12.95I 7.72%NM 7.37%EV +1.38%E +0.107%K +0.115%G +0.002% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.63%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 22:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -1.67%E -0.133%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -1.67%E -0.133%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 22:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 21:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -9.97%E -0.867%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -9.97%E -0.867%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -11.93%E -1.06%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.22%E -3.07%K -64.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.22%E -3.07%K -64.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 21:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-08 21:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -17.80%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -17.80%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -21.71%E -2.17%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -21.71%E -2.17%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-08 21:56 |
| TAB🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -21.71%E -2.17%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -23.67%E -2.43%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -29.54%E -3.28%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -33.46%E -3.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 0.6% | 2026-03-08 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 0.6% | 2026-03-08 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 0.6% | 2026-03-08 22:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 0.6% | 2026-03-08 22:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.34% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.66% | 1.7% | 2026-03-08 22:05 |