L’École des cotes

Denis Shapovalov v Jannik Sinner

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-08 22:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

51 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Denis Shapovalov (Local)

Prévision 7.83%12.77cote équitable
EV +22.13%
Avantage +1.42%
Kelly +1.52%
Croissance +0.335%

avec la cote maximale 15.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
6.23%8.00%7.90%10.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
8.5012.3712.5615.6011.76%8.08%7.96%6.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Jannik Sinner (Visiteur)

Prévision 92.17%1.08cote équitable
EV -3.22%
Avantage -3.07%
Kelly -64.40%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
89.10%92.00%92.10%93.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.021.031.031.0598.04%96.88%97.09%95.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (51 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
DraftKings15.60I 6.41%NM 6.25%EV +22.13%E +1.42%K +1.52%G +0.335%1.04I 96.15%NM 93.75%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-08 22:00
1xBet15.50I 6.45%NM 6.23%EV +21.34%E +1.38%K +1.47%G +0.314%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.77%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-08 22:05
Winamax (DE)15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-08 22:00
Paddy Power15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-08 22:20
SportsBet15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 22:19
FanDuel15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 22:19
Bovada15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +17.43%E +1.16%K +1.24%G +0.217%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 21:59
Pinnacle14.61I 6.84%NM 6.70%EV +14.38%E +0.984%K +1.06%G +0.152%1.05I 95.24%NM 93.30%EV -3.22%E -3.07%K -64.40%G +0.000%2.1%2026-03-08 22:00
Coolbet14.50I 6.90%NM 6.69%EV +13.51%E +0.932%K +1.00%G +0.135%1.04I 96.15%NM 93.31%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 21:59
Unibet (FR)13.80I 7.25%NM 6.88%EV +8.03%E +0.582%K +0.628%G +0.050%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.12%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 22:19
Winamax (FR)13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +5.69%E +0.421%K +0.455%G +0.026%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-08 22:05
BoyleSports13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -3.22%E -3.07%K -64.40%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 21:59
Bet Right13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
Casumo13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
Unibet (NL)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
LeoVegas13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
Grosvenor13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
Unibet (SE)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
TABtouch13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
Unibet13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
LiveScore Bet13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
BetRivers13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:00
Betclic (FR)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +1.77%E +0.136%K +0.148%G +0.003%1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-08 22:19
GTbets12.95I 7.72%NM 7.37%EV +1.38%E +0.107%K +0.115%G +0.002%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.63%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 22:19
LowVig.ag12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -1.67%E -0.133%K -0.145%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 22:00
BetOnline.ag12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -1.67%E -0.133%K -0.145%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 22:00
PointsBet (AU)12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-08 22:00
Marathon Bet12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 22:19
Betsson12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 21:59
Unibet (UK)12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 22:00
Betway12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 22:00
NordicBet12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -6.06%E -0.505%K -0.551%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 22:00
Fanatics11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -9.97%E -0.867%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 22:00
Virgin Bet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -9.97%E -0.867%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 22:00
Betr (AU)11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -11.93%E -1.06%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 21:59
Ladbrokes (UK)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.22%E -3.07%K -64.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 22:00
Coral11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.22%E -3.07%K -64.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 22:00
888sport11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 22:00
William Hill11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 21:59
Codere (IT)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 22:00
PlayUp11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 22:00
BetUS11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -13.89%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:59
Neds10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -17.80%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -17.80%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 22:00
Everygame10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -21.71%E -2.17%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 22:00
Caesars10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -21.71%E -2.17%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:56
TAB10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -21.71%E -2.17%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 22:00
BetMGM9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -23.67%E -2.43%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 22:00
Tipico (DE)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -29.54%E -3.28%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -5.06%E -4.92%K -168.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-08 22:00
Bet Victor8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -33.46%E -3.94%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -4.14%E -3.98%K -103.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-08 22:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79%0.6%2026-03-08 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79%0.6%2026-03-08 22:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79%0.6%2026-03-08 22:20
Matchbook16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79%0.6%2026-03-08 22:19
Smarkets15.50I 6.45%NM 6.34%1.05I 95.24%NM 93.66%1.7%2026-03-08 22:05