Language:English
Daniil Medvedev v Alejandro Tabilo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 76.17%1.31fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -6.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.77%76.14%76.19%77.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.2983.33%80.22%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alejandro Tabilo (Visit)
Prediction 23.83%4.20fair odd
EV +2.47%
Edge +0.575%
Kelly +0.749%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.22%23.86%23.81%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.913.924.3027.78%25.58%25.51%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 76.17%; Alejandro Tabilo (Visit): 23.83%. For Alejandro Tabilo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.47%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -5.55%E -4.48%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV +2.47%E +0.575%K +0.749%G +0.019% | 3.9% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.088%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.088%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 04:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.088%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.60%E -7.16%K -42.98%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +0.088%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -2.29%E -0.560%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -2.29%E -0.560%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -2.29%E -0.560%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.03%EV -2.50%E -1.96%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.97%EV -3.25%E -0.800%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -4.44%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 04:23 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.55%E -4.48%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-08 04:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.55%E -4.48%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.60%E -7.16%K -42.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.01%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.99%EV -5.63%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.03%E -3.20%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.87%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 04:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.87%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 04:16 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.55%E -4.48%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.87%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -4.03%E -3.20%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.23%EV -6.11%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -6.58%E -1.68%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 04:18 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.03%E -3.20%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.03%E -3.20%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.03%E -3.20%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.03%E -3.20%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.55%E -4.48%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 04:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -7.83%E -6.48%K -37.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -1.74%E -1.35%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -9.44%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -1.74%E -1.35%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -9.44%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.26%E -2.57%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -9.44%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 04:23 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.44%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.44%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.44%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.44%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.85%EV -3.26%E -2.57%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.15%EV -9.92%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 04:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.64%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 04:23 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -10.64%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.50%E -1.96%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -14.21%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.03%E -3.20%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -14.21%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.21%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.21%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.21%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-03-08 04:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.5% | 2026-03-08 04:25 |