Idioma:Português
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Alex Michelsen
Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →
Frente a frente
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Previsão 28.76%3.48odd justa
EV +3.54%
Vantagem +0.984%
Kelly +1.36%
Crescimento +0.048%
pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60
Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.53%28.67%28.57%30.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.323.353.6032.26%30.11%29.85%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Alex Michelsen (Visitante)
Previsão 71.24%1.40odd justa
EV -3.12%
Vantagem -2.29%
Kelly -8.66%
Crescimento +0.000%
pressupondo odds máximas de 1.36
Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
69.82%71.33%71.43%73.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.271.331.331.3678.74%75.27%75.19%73.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 28.76%; Alex Michelsen (Visitante): 71.24%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.48. 8 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.60, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.54%.
Odds das casas de apostas (61 casas de apostas)
Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.
| Casa de apostas | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margem | Atualização |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +3.54%E +0.984%K +1.36%G +0.048% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 05:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:16 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.68%E -5.10%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 19:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%EV -0.771%E -0.223%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 20:48 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.51%EV -1.92%E -0.563%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.49%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.53%E -7.50%K -35.29%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-05 12:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV -2.78%E -0.824%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.31%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 18:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 22:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-05 12:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.68%E -5.10%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 11:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 11:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 22:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 21:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 11:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -6.68%E -5.10%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.69%EV -7.39%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.31%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-05 11:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -7.39%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 21:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 12:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 11:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.40%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 11:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.40%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 11:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -4.54%E -3.39%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 15:50 |
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas
Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.
Bolsas de apostas (5)
| Casa de apostas | Local | Visitante | Margem ▲ | Atualização |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Novig◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73% | 2.5% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |