L’École des cotesLangue:Français
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Alex Michelsen
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prévision 28.76%3.48cote équitable
EV +3.54%
Avantage +0.984%
Kelly +1.36%
Croissance +0.048%
avec la cote maximale 3.60
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.53%28.67%28.57%30.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.323.353.6032.26%30.11%29.85%27.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Alex Michelsen (Visiteur)
Prévision 71.24%1.40cote équitable
EV -3.12%
Avantage -2.29%
Kelly -8.66%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.36
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
69.82%71.33%71.43%73.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.271.331.331.3678.74%75.27%75.19%73.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (61 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +3.54%E +0.984%K +1.36%G +0.048% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 05:50 |
| Bovada | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:16 |
| FanDuel | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| SportsBet | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.68%E -5.10%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| 888sport | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| William Hill | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 19:00 |
| Coolbet | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%EV -0.771%E -0.223%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 20:48 |
| Pinnacle | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.51%EV -1.92%E -0.563%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.49%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| GTbets | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Paddy Power | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.53%E -7.50%K -35.29%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-05 12:05 |
| 1xBet | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV -2.78%E -0.824%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.31%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Bet Right | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 18:45 |
| LeoVegas | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| BetRivers | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| TABtouch | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:04 |
| Unibet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Grosvenor | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Casumo | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Bally Bet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:04 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| betPARX | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 22:15 |
| theScore Bet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Fanatics | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-05 12:10 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.68%E -5.10%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| NordicBet | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 11:05 |
| Betsson | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 11:00 |
| PlayUp | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 22:09 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| BetUS | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 21:59 |
| BetMGM | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 11:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| NetBet (FR) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Fliff | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -6.68%E -5.10%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| DraftKings | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.69%EV -7.39%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.31%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-05 11:50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -7.39%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 21:58 |
| Betway | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 12:10 |
| Coral | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 11:54 |
| Everygame | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.40%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 11:54 |
| Neds | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.40%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 11:55 |
| TAB | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -4.54%E -3.39%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Bet Victor | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| Caesars | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 15:50 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Matchbook | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Novig | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73% | 2.5% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |