La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Alex Michelsen
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Predicción 28.76%3.48momio equitativo
EV +3.54%
Ventaja +0.984%
Kelly +1.36%
Crecimiento +0.048%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.53%28.67%28.57%30.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.323.353.6032.26%30.11%29.85%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Alex Michelsen (Visitante)
Predicción 71.24%1.40momio equitativo
EV -3.12%
Ventaja -2.29%
Kelly -8.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.82%71.33%71.43%73.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.271.331.331.3678.74%75.27%75.19%73.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +3.54%E +0.984%K +1.36%G +0.048% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 05:50 |
| Bovada | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:16 |
| FanDuel | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| SportsBet | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.68%E -5.10%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| 888sport | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| William Hill | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.667%E +0.191%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 19:00 |
| Coolbet | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%EV -0.771%E -0.223%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 20:48 |
| Pinnacle | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.51%EV -1.92%E -0.563%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.49%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| GTbets | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Paddy Power | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.39%E -5.69%K -24.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.21%E -0.650%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.53%E -7.50%K -35.29%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-05 12:05 |
| 1xBet | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV -2.78%E -0.824%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.31%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Bet Right | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 18:45 |
| LeoVegas | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| BetRivers | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| TABtouch | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:04 |
| Unibet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Grosvenor | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Casumo | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Bally Bet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:04 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| betPARX | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 22:15 |
| theScore Bet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Fanatics | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-05 12:10 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.09%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.68%E -5.10%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| NordicBet | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 11:05 |
| Betsson | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 11:00 |
| PlayUp | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 22:09 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| BetUS | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 21:59 |
| BetMGM | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 11:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| NetBet (FR) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Fliff | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -6.68%E -5.10%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| DraftKings | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.69%EV -7.39%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.31%EV -3.12%E -2.29%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-05 11:50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -7.39%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 21:58 |
| Betway | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.83%E -2.84%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 12:10 |
| Coral | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 11:54 |
| Everygame | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.40%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 11:54 |
| Neds | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.40%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -5.97%E -4.52%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 11:55 |
| TAB | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -4.54%E -3.39%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Bet Victor | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| Caesars | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.25%E -3.95%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 15:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Matchbook | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Novig | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73% | 2.5% | 2026-03-05 22:10 |