Language:English
Alexander Zverev v Jannik Sinner
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexander Zverev (Local)
Prediction 19.39%5.16fair odd
EV +11.52%
Edge +2.00%
Kelly +2.43%
Growth +0.279%
assuming max odds 5.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.55%19.28%19.57%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.055.005.7522.73%19.82%20.00%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jannik Sinner (Visit)
Prediction 80.61%1.24fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -2.73%
Kelly -16.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.99%80.72%80.43%83.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.171.171.2088.50%85.73%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Zverev (Local): 19.39%; Jannik Sinner (Visit): 80.61%. For Alexander Zverev (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.16. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.52%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +11.52%E +2.00%K +2.43%G +0.279% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +8.61%E +1.54%K +1.87%G +0.161% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -6.50%E -5.60%K -40.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 20:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +8.61%E +1.54%K +1.87%G +0.161% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV +7.64%E +1.38%K +1.68%G +0.128% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -6.50%E -5.60%K -40.61%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +6.67%E +1.21%K +1.48%G +0.099% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +6.67%E +1.21%K +1.48%G +0.099% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +6.67%E +1.21%K +1.48%G +0.099% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +6.67%E +1.21%K +1.48%G +0.099% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +6.67%E +1.21%K +1.48%G +0.099% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +6.67%E +1.21%K +1.48%G +0.099% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +6.67%E +1.21%K +1.48%G +0.099% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +4.73%E +0.876%K +1.08%G +0.051% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +4.73%E +0.876%K +1.08%G +0.051% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +4.73%E +0.876%K +1.08%G +0.051% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 20:38 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.32I 18.80%NM 18.40%EV +3.18%E +0.598%K +0.736%G +0.023% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.60%EV -3.27%E -2.73%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +2.79%E +0.527%K +0.649%G +0.018% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.50%E -5.60%K -40.61%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV +2.79%E +0.527%K +0.649%G +0.018% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 20:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +1.82%E +0.347%K +0.429%G +0.008% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +1.82%E +0.347%K +0.429%G +0.008% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +1.82%E +0.347%K +0.429%G +0.008% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +1.82%E +0.347%K +0.429%G +0.008% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV +0.852%E +0.164%K +0.203%G +0.002% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -1.09%E -0.213%K -0.265%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -8.92%E -7.89%K -68.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.09I 19.65%NM 18.95%EV -1.28%E -0.252%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.05%EV -4.08%E -3.43%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.09I 19.65%NM 18.95%EV -1.28%E -0.252%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.05%EV -4.08%E -3.43%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.42%EV -2.06%E -0.407%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.58%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 20:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -3.27%E -2.73%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.03%E -0.605%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.92I 20.33%NM 19.61%EV -4.58%E -0.931%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.39%EV -3.27%E -2.73%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -4.97%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.08%E -3.43%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -4.97%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.89%E -4.14%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.97%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 20:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -5.94%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.83%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.03%EV -5.94%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.97%EV -8.11%E -7.11%K -57.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -6.91%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.89%E -4.14%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -6.91%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 20:38 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -7.88%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.27%E -2.73%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -7.88%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.89%E -4.14%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -7.88%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.89%E -4.14%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 20:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.88%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.50%E -5.60%K -40.61%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.72I 21.19%NM 20.27%EV -8.46%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.73%EV -3.27%E -2.73%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -8.85%E -1.88%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -4.89%E -4.14%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -9.82%E -2.11%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -4.08%E -3.43%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 20:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.24%EV -9.82%E -2.11%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.76%EV -4.89%E -4.14%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.24%EV -9.82%E -2.11%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.76%EV -4.89%E -4.14%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.89%E -4.14%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.50%E -5.60%K -40.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 20:38 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.50%E -5.60%K -40.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.50%E -5.60%K -40.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -12.72%E -2.83%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.89%E -4.14%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-14 20:37 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -12.72%E -2.83%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 20:27 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -14.66%E -3.33%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.48%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 0.9% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 0.9% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Novig◎ | 5.59I 17.89%NM 17.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.45% | 1.9% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.15% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.85% | 2.3% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |