Language:English
Tommy Paul v Daniel Altmaier
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tommy Paul (Local)
Prediction 68.20%1.47fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.766%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%68.27%68.19%71.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.371.371.4577.52%72.75%73.26%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniel Altmaier (Visit)
Prediction 31.80%3.14fair odd
EV +7.49%
Edge +2.22%
Kelly +3.15%
Growth +0.236%
assuming max odds 3.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%31.73%31.81%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.972.993.3837.04%33.64%33.44%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tommy Paul (Local): 68.20%; Daniel Altmaier (Visit): 31.80%. For Daniel Altmaier (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.76%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.24%EV +7.49%E +2.22%K +3.15%G +0.236% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -11.34%E -8.72%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV +1.76%E +0.551%K +0.801%G +0.014% | 8.2% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -7.93%E -5.87%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV +0.173%E +0.055%K +0.080%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -7.93%E -5.87%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV +0.173%E +0.055%K +0.080%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV +0.173%E +0.055%K +0.080%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV +0.173%E +0.055%K +0.080%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.42%E -0.457%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.42%E -0.457%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.42%E -0.457%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.42%E -0.457%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.42%E -0.457%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -11.34%E -8.72%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -1.42%E -0.457%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.15%EV -2.48%E -1.73%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.85%EV -2.69%E -0.879%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -3.01%E -0.986%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 13:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -8.61%E -6.43%K -25.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -3.01%E -0.986%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 13:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.89%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -5.23%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.48%E -1.73%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-21 12:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -3.84%E -2.72%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 13:16 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 13:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 13:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -3.84%E -2.72%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -6.82%E -2.33%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 13:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.93%E -5.87%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.21%EV -12.02%E -9.32%K -41.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.79%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.21%EV -3.84%E -2.72%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.79%EV -8.10%E -2.80%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.41%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.59%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-21 13:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -2.48%E -1.73%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -9.05%E -3.16%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-21 13:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -2.48%E -1.73%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -7.93%E -5.87%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-21 13:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.84%EV -12.02%E -9.32%K -41.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.16%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 13:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -2.48%E -1.73%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 13:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-21 13:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -1.11%E -0.766%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 13:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 13:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.28% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72% | 1.7% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 2.7% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 2.7% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.63% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 13:20 |