Language:English
Ignacio Buse v Tommy Paul
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ignacio Buse (Local)
Prediction 40.59%2.46fair odd
EV -0.562%
Edge -0.230%
Kelly -0.388%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.73%40.63%40.61%44.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.272.302.4549.50%44.05%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tommy Paul (Visit)
Prediction 59.41%1.68fair odd
EV +2.19%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +3.04%
Growth +0.067%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.21%59.37%59.39%61.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.621.601.7265.79%61.91%62.50%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Buse (Local): 40.59%; Tommy Paul (Visit): 59.41%. For Tommy Paul (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.72, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.19%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -13.96%E -6.58%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV +2.19%E +1.27%K +3.04%G +0.067% | 5.3% | 2026-05-23 12:37 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -12.74%E -5.92%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -13.96%E -6.58%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV +1.00%E +0.590%K +1.43%G +0.014% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -14.77%E -7.03%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -0.186%E -0.111%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -14.77%E -7.03%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -0.186%E -0.111%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -14.77%E -7.03%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -0.186%E -0.111%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -0.780%E -0.467%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%EV -15.99%E -7.72%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -0.780%E -0.467%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.62%EV -16.39%E -7.96%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%EV -1.37%E -0.828%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -1.97%E -1.19%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -4.22%E -1.79%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -2.56%E -1.56%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -4.22%E -1.79%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -2.56%E -1.56%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-23 12:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.16%E -1.94%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.75%E -2.32%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -5.43%E -2.33%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -3.75%E -2.32%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.75%E -2.32%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 12:32 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.51%EV -18.01%E -8.92%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -3.75%E -2.32%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.34%E -2.70%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-23 12:27 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-23 12:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-23 12:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -3.40%E -1.43%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 12:38 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -0.562%E -0.230%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -6.13%E -3.88%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-23 12:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.13%E -3.88%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 12:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.13%E -3.88%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 12:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -5.03%E -2.15%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -6.13%E -3.88%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 12:38 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -1.37%E -0.566%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -3.00%E -1.25%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 12:28 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.81%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-23 12:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-23 12:37 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -5.43%E -2.33%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -7.32%E -4.69%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.91%E -5.10%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 12:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.91%E -5.10%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 12:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -7.46%E -3.27%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -8.50%E -5.52%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 12:38 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -8.50%E -5.52%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%EV -1.78%E -0.736%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.27%EV -9.10%E -5.95%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-23 12:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -9.10%E -5.95%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 12:27 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -9.69%E -6.38%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-23 12:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 0.5% | 2026-05-23 12:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| Novig◎ | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56% | 1.8% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26% | 2.3% | 2026-05-23 12:40 |