L’École des cotes

Ignacio Buse v Tommy Paul

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-23 13:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

62 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Ignacio Buse (Local)

Prévision 40.59%2.46cote équitable
EV -0.562%
Avantage -0.230%
Kelly -0.388%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.73%40.63%40.61%44.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.022.272.302.4549.50%44.05%43.48%40.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Tommy Paul (Visiteur)

Prévision 59.41%1.68cote équitable
EV +2.19%
Avantage +1.27%
Kelly +3.04%
Croissance +0.067%

avec la cote maximale 1.72

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.21%59.37%59.39%61.27%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.521.621.601.7265.79%61.91%62.50%58.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (62 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Bally Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -13.96%E -6.58%K -12.46%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV +2.19%E +1.27%K +3.04%G +0.067%5.3%2026-05-23 12:37
Hard Rock Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -12.74%E -5.92%K -11.08%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036%5.0%2026-05-23 12:40
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036%5.2%2026-05-23 12:39
Unibet (NL)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036%5.2%2026-05-23 12:39
Unibet (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036%5.2%2026-05-23 12:40
Casumo2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036%5.2%2026-05-23 12:40
Unibet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036%5.2%2026-05-23 12:39
ATG (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036%5.2%2026-05-23 12:39
Svenska Spel2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036%5.2%2026-05-23 12:39
betPARX2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV +1.60%E +0.934%K +2.25%G +0.036%5.2%2026-05-23 12:40
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -13.96%E -6.58%K -12.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV +1.00%E +0.590%K +1.43%G +0.014%6.0%2026-05-23 12:39
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -14.77%E -7.03%K -13.43%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -0.186%E -0.111%K -0.273%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 12:40
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -14.77%E -7.03%K -13.43%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -0.186%E -0.111%K -0.273%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 12:40
Grosvenor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -14.77%E -7.03%K -13.43%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -0.186%E -0.111%K -0.273%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 12:39
BetOnline.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -0.780%E -0.467%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-23 12:40
LeoVegas2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%EV -15.99%E -7.72%K -14.94%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -0.780%E -0.467%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-23 12:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 44.62%EV -16.39%E -7.96%K -15.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%EV -1.37%E -0.828%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 12:39
Pinnacle2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -1.97%E -1.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-23 12:30
LowVig.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -4.22%E -1.79%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -2.56%E -1.56%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 12:39
BetAnything2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -4.22%E -1.79%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -2.56%E -1.56%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 12:34
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.16%E -1.94%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 12:39
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.75%E -2.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 12:39
Unibet (UK)2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -5.43%E -2.33%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -3.75%E -2.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 12:40
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.75%E -2.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 12:32
PMU (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 44.51%EV -18.01%E -8.92%K -17.66%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -3.75%E -2.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-23 12:39
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.34%E -2.70%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-23 12:30
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 12:40
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 12:30
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 12:39
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 12:39
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 12:39
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 12:39
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 12:27
BetMGM2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 12:29
BetUS2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 12:29
FanDuel2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -3.40%E -1.43%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 12:30
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 12:30
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 12:30
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 12:38
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -0.562%E -0.230%K -0.388%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -6.13%E -3.88%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-23 12:29
1xBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.13%E -3.88%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 12:29
ReBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.13%E -3.88%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 12:29
Bet Right2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -5.03%E -2.15%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -6.13%E -3.88%K -10.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 12:38
DraftKings2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -1.37%E -0.566%K -0.961%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 12:39
Marathon Bet2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -3.00%E -1.25%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 12:28
Codere (IT)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.81%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 12:29
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 12:40
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 12:39
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 12:30
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 12:30
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 12:39
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 12:39
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 12:37
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 12:30
SportsBet2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -5.43%E -2.33%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -7.32%E -4.69%K -13.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 12:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.91%E -5.10%K -14.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-23 12:29
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.91%E -5.10%K -14.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-23 12:30
Betclic (FR)2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -7.46%E -3.27%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -8.50%E -5.52%K -15.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 12:38
Fliff2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -8.50%E -5.52%K -15.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 12:39
NetBet (FR)2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%EV -1.78%E -0.736%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.27%EV -9.10%E -5.95%K -17.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 12:29
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -9.10%E -5.95%K -17.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 12:27
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -9.69%E -6.38%K -18.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 12:29
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-05-23 12:39
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-05-23 12:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-05-23 12:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-05-23 12:40
Novig2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56%1.8%2026-05-23 12:40
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%2.3%2026-05-23 12:40