Language:English
Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)
Prediction 46.37%2.16fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.88%46.41%46.48%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1051.28%49.04%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 53.63%1.86fair odd
EV +0.286%
Edge +0.153%
Kelly +0.329%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%53.59%53.52%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.781.8758.82%56.40%56.18%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local): 46.37%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 53.63%. For Frances Tiafoe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.286%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -9.58%E -4.91%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.286%E +0.153%K +0.329%G +0.001% | 4.8% | 2026-05-20 12:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -4.48%E -2.17%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -0.787%E -0.425%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-20 13:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.62%E -1.25%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.94%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-20 08:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.94%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.33%E -3.13%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 12:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 06:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 12:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 06:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.47%E -1.93%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -5.40%E -2.65%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-20 12:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -5.40%E -2.65%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.00%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-20 07:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-20 10:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.55%E -1.71%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-20 10:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.94%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.87%E -2.89%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-20 12:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 08:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -8.19%E -4.13%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-20 12:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.48%E -2.17%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.48%E -2.17%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-20 12:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-20 12:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.94%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.61%E -3.19%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 07:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -5.61%E -3.19%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-20 08:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.62%E -1.25%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.15%E -3.51%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-20 13:06 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -3.08%E -1.48%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -6.15%E -3.51%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-20 07:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -3.08%E -1.48%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -6.15%E -3.51%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-20 12:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.58%E -4.91%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.15%E -3.51%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-20 12:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.58%E -4.91%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.15%E -3.51%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.62%E -1.25%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.62%E -1.25%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -4.48%E -2.17%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-20 07:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -4.48%E -2.17%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-20 07:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.94%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.22%E -4.17%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-20 07:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.22%E -4.17%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.22%E -4.17%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.22%E -4.17%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.22%E -4.17%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.62%E -1.25%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.29%E -4.85%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-20 06:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.29%E -4.85%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.94%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.83%E -5.19%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-20 06:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 0.7% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-20 12:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-20 12:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-20 12:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17% | 2.5% | 2026-05-20 13:09 |
| Novig◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.06% | 3.3% | 2026-05-20 13:00 |