Language:English
Nuno Borges v Felix Auger-Aliassime
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nuno Borges (Local)
Prediction 29.82%3.35fair odd
EV +1.98%
Edge +0.578%
Kelly +0.817%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 3.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.70%29.98%29.68%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.153.153.4235.71%31.79%31.75%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit)
Prediction 70.18%1.42fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -4.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%70.02%70.32%72.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.351.351.4078.13%74.27%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nuno Borges (Local): 29.82%; Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit): 70.18%. For Nuno Borges (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV +1.98%E +0.578%K +0.817%G +0.016% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -8.06%E -6.15%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +1.38%E +0.406%K +0.575%G +0.008% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.36%E -5.58%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.21%EV -1.00%E -0.303%K -0.433%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.79%EV -3.85%E -2.81%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-15 12:31 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -1.00%E -0.303%K -0.433%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -8.76%E -6.74%K -29.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -1.60%E -0.485%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -4.55%E -3.35%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.60%E -0.485%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.85%EV -2.20%E -0.670%K -0.964%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.15%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -3.09%E -0.951%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -3.85%E -2.81%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.09%E -0.951%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.09%E -0.951%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.09%E -0.951%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-15 12:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.09%E -0.951%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-15 12:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.09%E -0.951%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.09%E -0.951%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.30%EV -3.99%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.70%EV -1.74%E -1.25%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.55%E -3.35%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:31 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -7.36%E -5.58%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.76%E -6.74%K -29.21%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -3.85%E -2.81%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -3.85%E -2.81%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.55%E -3.35%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 12:46 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -5.96%E -4.44%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -5.96%E -4.44%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -7.36%E -5.58%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-15 12:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.60%EV -6.67%E -2.13%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.40%EV -3.15%E -2.28%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.60%EV -6.67%E -2.13%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.40%EV -3.15%E -2.28%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.55%E -3.35%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.55%E -3.35%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.55%E -3.35%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.96%E -4.44%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -7.36%E -5.58%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 29.68%EV -8.16%E -2.65%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -8.76%E -6.74%K -29.21%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-15 12:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -9.06%E -2.97%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%EV -7.36%E -5.58%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -1.74%E -1.25%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -1.74%E -1.25%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-15 12:46 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.15%E -2.28%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 12:47 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.15%E -2.28%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.55%E -3.35%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.55%E -3.35%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.66%E -5.01%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.36%E -5.58%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.91%EV -10.55%E -3.52%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -10.17%E -7.94%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -12.04%E -4.08%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -5.25%E -3.89%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-15 12:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -13.53%E -4.66%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -1.74%E -1.25%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-15 12:47 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -16.51%E -5.90%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -1.74%E -1.25%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-15 12:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 0.8% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 0.8% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| Novig◎ | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.66% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.34% | 2.3% | 2026-06-15 12:51 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19% | 3.2% | 2026-06-15 12:50 |