Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Nuno Borges

Início: 2026-05-24 12:45 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

58 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local)

Previsão 66.80%1.50odd justa
EV -0.470%
Vantagem -0.316%
Kelly -0.960%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.49

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.59%66.95%66.74%69.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.381.421.431.4972.46%70.40%69.93%67.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nuno Borges (Visitante)

Previsão 33.20%3.01odd justa
EV +4.59%
Vantagem +1.46%
Kelly +2.13%
Crescimento +0.098%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.15

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.62%33.05%33.26%34.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.852.803.1536.36%35.09%35.71%31.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local): 66.80%; Nuno Borges (Visitante): 33.20%. Para Nuno Borges (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.01. 5 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.15, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.59%.

Odds das casas de apostas (58 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -7.15%E -5.14%K -18.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV +4.59%E +1.46%K +2.13%G +0.098%3.7%2026-05-24 12:40
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58%EV -5.15%E -3.62%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42%EV +2.92%E +0.944%K +1.39%G +0.041%2.7%2026-05-24 12:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.82%E -5.67%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +1.26%E +0.415%K +0.617%G +0.008%5.3%2026-05-24 12:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV +0.933%E +0.307%K +0.457%G +0.004%3.8%2026-05-24 12:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV +0.933%E +0.307%K +0.457%G +0.004%3.8%2026-05-24 12:40
BetAnything🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.25%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.75%EV -0.063%E -0.021%K -0.031%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-24 12:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.65%EV -5.15%E -3.62%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.35%EV -1.39%E -0.468%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-24 12:39
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05%EV -3.14%E -2.17%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV -2.06%E -0.697%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-24 12:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75%EV -7.15%E -5.14%K -18.33%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.25%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 12:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.81%E -2.65%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-24 12:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 12:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 12:40
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 12:40
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 12:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 12:40
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 12:40
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 12:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.81%E -2.65%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-24 12:40
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-24 12:40
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.15%E -3.62%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 12:40
Fanatics🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 12:40
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 12:40
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 12:40
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.59%EV -0.470%E -0.316%K -0.960%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.41%EV -5.71%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-24 12:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.57%EV -6.04%E -2.13%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 12:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.81%E -2.65%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 12:39
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:39
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 12:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.15%E -3.62%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-24 12:40
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-24 12:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.71%EV -3.81%E -2.65%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.29%EV -8.36%E -3.03%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-24 12:39
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.81%E -2.65%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 12:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.81%E -2.65%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 12:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-24 12:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-24 12:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-24 12:40
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.15%E -3.62%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-24 12:39
Fliff🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-24 12:40
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-24 12:40
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-24 12:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-24 12:40
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-24 12:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-05-24 12:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-05-24 12:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-05-24 12:40
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-05-24 12:40
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%2.2%2026-05-24 12:40
Novig1.43I 69.93%NM 67.57%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.43%3.5%2026-05-24 12:38