Language:English
Sebastian Ofner v Luciano Darderi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sebastian Ofner (Local)
Prediction 26.15%3.82fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.772%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 3.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.67%26.07%26.10%27.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.603.603.9430.30%27.81%27.78%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luciano Darderi (Visit)
Prediction 73.85%1.35fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -10.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.34%73.93%73.90%75.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.281.291.3180.65%77.83%77.52%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Ofner (Local): 26.15%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 73.85%. For Sebastian Ofner (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.67%EV +3.04%E +0.772%K +1.03%G +0.031% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.33%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%EV +1.74%E +0.446%K +0.600%G +0.010% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%EV +1.74%E +0.446%K +0.600%G +0.010% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -0.619%E -0.163%K -0.221%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -0.619%E -0.163%K -0.221%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.69%E -6.15%K -30.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -0.619%E -0.163%K -0.221%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.69%E -6.15%K -30.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -1.93%E -0.514%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -1.93%E -0.514%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-26 15:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -1.93%E -0.514%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -1.93%E -0.514%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.95%E -5.52%K -26.74%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -2.19%E -0.585%K -0.798%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-26 16:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -3.23%E -0.874%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.23%E -0.874%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.23%E -0.874%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.75%EV -3.50%E -0.947%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.25%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-26 16:09 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.21%E -4.89%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-26 15:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -5.33%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.88%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-26 15:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.26%E -2.49%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-26 15:38 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 15:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 15:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 15:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 15:38 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 15:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 15:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.21%E -4.89%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-26 15:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.21%E -4.89%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-26 15:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.95%E -5.52%K -26.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-26 15:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.39%EV -6.63%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.61%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-26 15:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.75%EV -6.90%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.25%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 16:01 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -3.26%E -2.49%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-26 16:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 16:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-26 16:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 15:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 15:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.21%E -4.89%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-26 16:02 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.69%E -6.15%K -30.77%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -9.77%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -9.77%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -9.77%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -9.77%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-26 16:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-26 16:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.74%E -3.67%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-26 15:58 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -6.21%E -4.89%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -6.95%E -5.52%K -26.74%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.69%EV -8.43%E -6.80%K -35.12%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-05-26 16:10 |
| Novig◎ | 4.07I 24.57%NM 24.21% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.79% | 1.5% | 2026-05-26 16:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61% | 2.5% | 2026-05-26 15:50 |