Language:English
Lorenzo Sonego v Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lorenzo Sonego (Local)
Prediction 63.93%1.56fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.76%63.88%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.481.5469.93%67.63%67.57%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert (Visit)
Prediction 36.07%2.77fair odd
EV -0.097%
Edge -0.035%
Kelly -0.055%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.24%36.12%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.652.7740.00%37.78%37.74%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lorenzo Sonego (Local): 63.93%; Pierre-Hugues Herbert (Visit): 36.07%. For Pierre-Hugues Herbert (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.773. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.770, with an expected value of -0.097%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -1.54%E -1.00%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV -5.15%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.18%E -1.43%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.18%E -1.43%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 17:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-24 17:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-24 17:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -4.79%E -1.81%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -8.39%E -3.30%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.82%EV -3.70%E -1.39%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-24 17:58 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.15%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 17:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-24 17:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -3.34%E -1.25%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -3.70%E -1.39%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -3.70%E -1.39%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-24 17:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -6.66%E -4.56%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -0.097%E -0.035%K -0.055%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.66%E -4.56%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 17:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-24 17:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-24 17:58 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.93%E -5.51%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.93%E -5.51%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.93%E -5.51%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-24 17:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.57%E -6.00%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94% | 0.1% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94% | 0.1% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.00% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.00% | 2.1% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17% | 2.4% | 2026-05-24 18:00 |