L’École des cotes

Lorenzo Sonego v Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-24 18:05 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Lorenzo Sonego (Local)

Prévision 63.93%1.56cote équitable
EV -1.54%
Avantage -1.00%
Kelly -2.85%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.54

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
62.03%63.76%63.88%65.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.431.481.481.5469.93%67.63%67.57%64.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Pierre-Hugues Herbert (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.07%2.77cote équitable
EV -0.097%
Avantage -0.035%
Kelly -0.055%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.77

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.52%36.24%36.12%37.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.652.652.7740.00%37.78%37.74%36.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -1.54%E -1.00%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV -5.15%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-24 18:00
BetAnything1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.18%E -1.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-24 18:00
theScore Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.18%E -1.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 18:00
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-24 18:00
Unibet (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-24 17:59
Betsson1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 18:00
DraftKings1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 18:00
NordicBet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 17:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 18:00
Neds1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 18:00
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-24 17:59
Bovada1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-24 17:59
FanDuel1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -4.79%E -1.81%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-24 18:00
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 18:00
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 18:00
BetMGM1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -8.39%E -3.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 18:00
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-24 18:00
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-24 18:00
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-24 18:00
Codere (IT)1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-24 18:00
Betclic (FR)1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.82%EV -3.70%E -1.39%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-24 17:58
BetRivers1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.15%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 17:55
Winamax (FR)1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 17:59
LowVig.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-24 18:00
BetOnline.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-24 18:00
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-24 18:00
MyBookie.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -3.34%E -1.25%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-24 18:00
Bet Right1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
Fanatics1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
PlayUp1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 18:00
PointsBet (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.84%E -3.93%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-24 18:00
GTbets1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -3.70%E -1.39%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 18:00
Marathon Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -3.70%E -1.39%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 17:59
Betr (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 18:00
Tipico (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 18:00
NetBet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 18:00
1xBet1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -6.66%E -4.56%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -0.097%E -0.035%K -0.055%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-24 18:00
TAB1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.66%E -4.56%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 18:00
Unibet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
Casumo1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
Unibet (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
Unibet (NL)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
LeoVegas1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
Grosvenor1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
TABtouch1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
Bally Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
betPARX1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
Svenska Spel1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
ATG (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 18:00
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.819%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 17:59
Caesars1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-24 17:59
Bet Victor1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 17:58
Fliff1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 18:00
Virgin Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.93%E -5.51%K -18.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 18:00
LiveScore Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.93%E -5.51%K -18.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 18:00
Betway1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.93%E -5.51%K -18.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-24 17:59
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.57%E -6.00%K -19.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-24 18:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94%0.1%2026-05-24 18:00
Matchbook1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94%0.1%2026-05-24 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-05-24 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-05-24 18:00
Smarkets1.53I 65.36%NM 64.00%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.00%2.1%2026-05-24 18:00
Novig1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%2.4%2026-05-24 18:00