Language:English
Joao Fonseca v Luka Pavlovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joao Fonseca (Local)
Prediction 90.86%1.10fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -39.72%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.30%90.78%90.66%92.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.051.051.0797.09%95.24%95.24%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luka Pavlovic (Visit)
Prediction 9.14%10.94fair odd
EV +18.82%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.295%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.34%9.22%9.34%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.1810.0013.0012.50%9.83%10.00%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joao Fonseca (Local): 90.86%; Luka Pavlovic (Visit): 9.14%. For Luka Pavlovic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.94. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +18.82%E +1.45%K +1.57%G +0.295% | 3.8% | 2026-05-24 15:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.41%E -6.23%K -213.82%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +18.82%E +1.45%K +1.57%G +0.295% | 4.8% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +9.68%E +0.807%K +0.880%G +0.085% | 3.6% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.76%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 11.80I 8.47%NM 8.24%EV +7.85%E +0.666%K +0.727%G +0.057% | 2.8% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.56%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.44%EV +5.11%E +0.445%K +0.487%G +0.025% | 3.0% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +5.11%E +0.445%K +0.487%G +0.025% | 4.8% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +0.543%E +0.049%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +0.543%E +0.049%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +0.543%E +0.049%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +0.543%E +0.049%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:07 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.41%E -6.23%K -213.82%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +0.543%E +0.049%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.41%E -6.23%K -213.82%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +0.543%E +0.049%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.99%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.70I 9.35%NM 9.01%EV -2.20%E -0.206%K -0.227%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -4.03%E -0.384%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-24 15:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -6.31%E -0.616%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.67%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.20I 9.80%NM 9.33%EV -6.77%E -0.664%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.44%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.03I 9.97%NM 9.56%EV -8.32%E -0.830%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 14:57 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 14:57 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.41%E -6.23%K -213.82%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -8.60%E -0.860%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV -9.05%E -0.910%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 15:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -13.17%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -13.17%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -17.74%E -1.97%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -17.74%E -1.97%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -17.74%E -1.97%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -2.78%E -2.60%K -39.72%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -22.31%E -2.62%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -4.60%E -4.38%K -91.95%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -22.31%E -2.62%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -5.51%E -5.29%K -137.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -22.31%E -2.62%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -3.69%E -3.48%K -61.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -26.88%E -3.36%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-24 15:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 0.9% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 0.9% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 0.9% | 2026-05-24 15:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 91.14% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.86% | 2.5% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.63% | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.37% | 3.9% | 2026-05-24 15:20 |