Language:English
Rafael Jodar v Alejandro Tabilo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Prediction 67.61%1.48fair odd
EV -0.606%
Edge -0.412%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.04%67.39%67.57%68.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.421.421.4774.07%70.45%70.42%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alejandro Tabilo (Visit)
Prediction 32.39%3.09fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.402%
Kelly -0.598%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.38%32.61%32.43%35.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.862.883.0538.46%35.00%34.72%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Jodar (Local): 67.61%; Alejandro Tabilo (Visit): 32.39%. For Rafael Jodar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.47, with an expected value of -0.606%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.28%EV -0.606%E -0.412%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.72%EV -6.41%E -2.22%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-17 18:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -1.28%E -0.878%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -1.28%E -0.878%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -1.28%E -0.878%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -15.80%E -6.08%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 18:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -7.38%E -2.58%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-17 17:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -7.38%E -2.58%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-17 17:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.65%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-17 18:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -2.63%E -1.83%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-17 18:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.63%E -1.83%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-17 18:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%EV -1.23%E -0.402%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-17 18:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%EV -9.00%E -3.20%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-17 18:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -14.18%E -5.35%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-17 18:52 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-17 18:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-17 18:18 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -3.49%E -1.17%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-17 18:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -4.79%E -1.63%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-17 18:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -7.70%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-17 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 04:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 16:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 11:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 16:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 18:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 16:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-17 15:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.05%E -2.46%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.05%E -2.46%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 16:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-17 18:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -1.55%E -0.510%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 18:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.25%EV -5.44%E -1.86%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.70%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 18:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.69%E -4.85%K -17.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-17 16:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.14%EV -7.37%E -5.38%K -19.91%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.86%EV -5.11%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-17 18:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.34%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.34%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.72%E -6.46%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 16:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.84% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 32.16% | 1.0% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-08-17 18:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07% | 2.2% | 2026-08-17 18:55 |