Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Rafael Jodar v Alejandro Tabilo

Início: 2026-08-17 19:00 UTC

Final: Rafael Jodar 2–0 Alejandro Tabilo

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Rafael Jodar (Local)

Previsão 67.61%1.48odd justa
EV -0.606%
Vantagem -0.412%
Kelly -1.29%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.47

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
64.04%67.39%67.57%68.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.351.421.421.4774.07%70.45%70.42%68.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Alejandro Tabilo (Visitante)

Previsão 32.39%3.09odd justa
EV -1.23%
Vantagem -0.402%
Kelly -0.598%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.05

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
31.38%32.61%32.43%35.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.602.862.883.0538.46%35.00%34.72%32.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Rafael Jodar (Local): 67.61%; Alejandro Tabilo (Visitante): 32.39%. Para Rafael Jodar (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.48. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 1.47, com valor esperado de -0.606%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.28%EV -0.606%E -0.412%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.72%EV -6.41%E -2.22%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-17 18:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -1.28%E -0.878%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-17 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -1.28%E -0.878%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-17 17:59
TAB🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -1.28%E -0.878%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -15.80%E -6.08%K -9.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-17 18:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -7.38%E -2.58%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-17 17:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -7.38%E -2.58%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-17 17:50
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 17:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 17:59
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:00
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 17:59
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 17:59
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 17:59
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 17:59
Bally Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:00
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.65%K -7.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-17 18:19
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -2.63%E -1.83%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-17 18:14
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.63%E -1.83%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 18:05
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%EV -1.23%E -0.402%K -0.598%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-17 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-17 18:04
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-17 18:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%EV -9.00%E -3.20%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-17 18:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -14.18%E -5.35%K -8.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 17:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-17 18:52
BetAnything🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-17 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-17 18:04
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-17 18:18
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 16:49
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 16:49
FanDuel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -3.49%E -1.17%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-17 18:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-17 18:05
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-17 18:04
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-17 18:04
ReBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -4.79%E -1.63%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-17 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -7.70%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-17 18:30
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-17 04:50
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:04
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 18:04
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 16:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 11:50
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 16:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 18:09
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 16:34
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 16:50
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-17 15:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-17 18:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.05%E -2.46%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 16:30
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.05%E -2.46%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 16:30
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 18:03
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 18:04
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.42%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -1.55%E -0.510%K -0.759%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-17 18:35
GTbets🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.25%EV -5.44%E -1.86%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-17 18:00
Fliff🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.70%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-17 18:59
Caesars🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.69%E -4.85%K -17.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-17 16:39
SportsBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.14%EV -7.37%E -5.38%K -19.91%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.86%EV -5.11%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-17 18:19
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-17 18:04
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-17 18:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.72%E -6.46%K -24.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 16:44
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-08-17 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-08-17 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-08-17 18:50
Matchbook◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-08-17 18:50
Novig◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.84%3.08I 32.47%NM 32.16%1.0%2026-08-17 18:50
ProphetX◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.2%2026-08-17 18:35
Smarkets◎1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%2.2%2026-08-17 18:55