Idioma:Español
Rafael Jodar v Alejandro Tabilo
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Predicción 67.61%1.48momio equitativo
EV -0.606%
Ventaja -0.412%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.47
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.04%67.39%67.57%68.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.351.421.421.4774.07%70.45%70.42%68.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Alejandro Tabilo (Visitante)
Predicción 32.39%3.09momio equitativo
EV -1.23%
Ventaja -0.402%
Kelly -0.598%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.38%32.61%32.43%35.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.862.883.0538.46%35.00%34.72%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Rafael Jodar (Local): 67.61%; Alejandro Tabilo (Visitante): 32.39%. Para Rafael Jodar (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.48. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 1.47, con un valor esperado de -0.606%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.28%EV -0.606%E -0.412%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.72%EV -6.41%E -2.22%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-17 18:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -1.28%E -0.878%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -1.28%E -0.878%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -1.28%E -0.878%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -15.80%E -6.08%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 18:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -7.38%E -2.58%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-17 17:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -7.38%E -2.58%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-17 17:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -1.96%E -1.35%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.65%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-17 18:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -2.63%E -1.83%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-17 18:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.63%E -1.83%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-17 18:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%EV -1.23%E -0.402%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-17 18:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%EV -9.00%E -3.20%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-17 18:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -3.31%E -2.32%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -14.18%E -5.35%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-17 17:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-17 18:52 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-17 18:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-17 18:18 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -3.49%E -1.17%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-17 18:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -4.79%E -1.63%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-17 18:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.66%E -3.31%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -7.70%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-17 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.84%E -0.948%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 04:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 16:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 11:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 16:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 18:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 16:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-17 15:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.05%E -2.46%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.05%E -2.46%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 16:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-17 18:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.81%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.94%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -1.55%E -0.510%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 18:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.25%EV -5.44%E -1.86%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-17 18:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.70%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 18:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.69%E -4.85%K -17.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.08%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-17 16:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.14%EV -7.37%E -5.38%K -19.91%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.86%EV -5.11%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-17 18:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.34%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.34%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -6.73%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 18:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.72%E -6.46%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 16:44 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.84% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 32.16% | 1.0% | 2026-08-17 18:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-08-17 18:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07% | 2.2% | 2026-08-17 18:55 |