Language:English
Mattia Bellucci v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mattia Bellucci (Local)
Prediction 25.42%3.93fair odd
EV +0.912%
Edge +0.230%
Kelly +0.307%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.30%25.55%25.55%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.723.753.9729.41%26.88%26.67%25.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 74.58%1.34fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -10.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.49%74.45%74.45%75.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3081.97%78.76%78.74%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mattia Bellucci (Local): 25.42%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 74.58%. For Mattia Bellucci (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.97, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.912%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.52%EV +0.912%E +0.230%K +0.307%G +0.003% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.48%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 16:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.90%EV -0.359%E -0.092%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.10%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -0.868%E -0.222%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-15 15:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -0.868%E -0.222%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-15 06:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 25.10%EV -1.38%E -0.355%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.90%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.51%EV -1.38%E -0.355%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.49%EV -6.03%E -4.78%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -1.88%E -0.488%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.10%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -1.88%E -0.488%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.10%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.14%E -0.555%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.14%E -0.555%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -9.01%E -7.39%K -40.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.85%EV -3.92%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.15%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 15:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 13:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV -4.93%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 18:13 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 14:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 17:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 13:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 08:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 16:22 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 16:22 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -8.26%E -6.72%K -35.93%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -6.03%E -4.78%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -12.31%E -3.57%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -6.03%E -4.78%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 17:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 18:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 1.1% | 2026-08-15 17:45 |
| Novig◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.35% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 17:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48% | 3.3% | 2026-08-15 18:05 |