Język:Polski
Mattia Bellucci v Jakub Mensik
Linia zamknięcia — prawdopodobieństwa i wartość oczekiwana obliczone przez wybrany model na podstawie ostatnich kursów zarejestrowanych przed rozpoczęciem. Spotkanie już trwa, więc nie są to dane bieżące. Oceń wiarygodność prognoz prawdopodobieństwa każdego modelu na tle wyników wszystkich rozstrzygniętych spotkań →
Zwycięzca spotkania
Mattia Bellucci (Gospodarze)
Prognoza 25.42%3.93kurs godziwy
EV +0.912%
Przewaga +0.230%
Kelly +0.307%
Wzrost +0.003%
przy maksymalnym kursie 3.97
Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
24.30%25.55%25.55%27.51%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
3.403.723.753.9729.41%26.88%26.67%25.19%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Jakub Mensik (Goście)
Prognoza 74.58%1.34kurs godziwy
EV -3.04%
Przewaga -2.34%
Kelly -10.15%
Wzrost +0.000%
przy maksymalnym kursie 1.30
Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
72.49%74.45%74.45%75.70%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
1.221.271.271.3081.97%78.76%78.74%76.92%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Przy ostatnich kursach przed rozpoczęciem model Średnia międzykwartylowa (Lista Wyselekcjonowana) szacował rynek Zwycięzca spotkania następująco: Mattia Bellucci (Gospodarze): 25.42%; Jakub Mensik (Goście): 74.58%. Dla wyniku Mattia Bellucci (Gospodarze) oszacowanie to odpowiadało uczciwemu kursowi dziesiętnemu 3.93. 1 bukmacher oferował kurs zamknięcia powyżej tego poziomu; najlepszy wynosił 3.97, co odpowiadało dodatniej wartości oczekiwanej +0.912%.
Kursy bukmacherskie (63 bukmacherów)
Nie jesteśmy powiązani z żadnym bukmacherem i nie czerpiemy korzyści z zawieranych u niego zakładów.
| Bukmacher | Gospodarze ▼ | Goście | Marża | Aktualizacja |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.52%EV +0.912%E +0.230%K +0.307%G +0.003% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.48%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 16:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.90%EV -0.359%E -0.092%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.10%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -0.868%E -0.222%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-15 15:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -0.868%E -0.222%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-15 06:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 25.10%EV -1.38%E -0.355%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.90%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.51%EV -1.38%E -0.355%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.49%EV -6.03%E -4.78%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -1.88%E -0.488%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.10%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -1.88%E -0.488%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.10%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.14%E -0.555%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.14%E -0.555%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -9.01%E -7.39%K -40.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.85%EV -3.92%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.15%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 15:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 13:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV -4.93%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 18:13 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 14:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 17:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 13:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 08:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 16:22 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 16:22 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -8.26%E -6.72%K -35.93%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -6.03%E -4.78%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -12.31%E -3.57%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -6.03%E -4.78%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
Marża = Marża (suma nadmiarowa) · I = Prawdopodobieństwo implikowane · NM = Prawdopodobieństwo bez marży · EV = Wartość oczekiwana · E = Przewaga · K = Kryterium Kelly’ego · G = Wzrost kapitału
Aktualizacja oznacza chwilę ostatniej zmiany kursu przez danego bukmachera. Starszy czas wskazuje więc, że kurs się nie zmienił, a nie że jest nieaktualny. Bukmacherzy niewidoczni przez około 15 minut są zwykle usuwani; jedynie gdy zamilknie źródło danych całego rynku, wyświetlane są ostatnie zarejestrowane kursy.
Giełdy zakładów (7)
| Bukmacher | Gospodarze | Goście | Marża ▲ | Aktualizacja |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 17:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 18:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 1.1% | 2026-08-15 17:45 |
| Novig◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.35% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 17:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48% | 3.3% | 2026-08-15 18:05 |