Idioma:Español
Mattia Bellucci v Jakub Mensik
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Mattia Bellucci (Local)
Predicción 25.42%3.93momio equitativo
EV +0.912%
Ventaja +0.230%
Kelly +0.307%
Crecimiento +0.003%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.97
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.30%25.55%25.55%27.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.723.753.9729.41%26.88%26.67%25.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Jakub Mensik (Visitante)
Predicción 74.58%1.34momio equitativo
EV -3.04%
Ventaja -2.34%
Kelly -10.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.49%74.45%74.45%75.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.221.271.271.3081.97%78.76%78.74%76.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mattia Bellucci (Local): 25.42%; Jakub Mensik (Visitante): 74.58%. Para Mattia Bellucci (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.93. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.97, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.912%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.52%EV +0.912%E +0.230%K +0.307%G +0.003% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.48%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 16:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.90%EV -0.359%E -0.092%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.10%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -0.868%E -0.222%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-15 15:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -0.868%E -0.222%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-15 06:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 25.10%EV -1.38%E -0.355%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.90%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.51%EV -1.38%E -0.355%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.49%EV -6.03%E -4.78%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -1.88%E -0.488%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.10%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -1.88%E -0.488%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.10%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.14%E -0.555%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.14%E -0.555%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -3.41%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -9.01%E -7.39%K -40.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.85%EV -3.92%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.15%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 15:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 13:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV -4.93%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 18:13 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 14:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 17:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 13:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.28%E -4.16%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 08:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 16:22 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 16:22 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -8.26%E -6.72%K -35.93%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -6.03%E -4.78%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 18:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.54%E -3.54%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.77%E -5.42%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 16:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -12.31%E -3.57%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.79%E -2.94%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -6.03%E -4.78%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-15 18:14 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 17:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 18:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 1.1% | 2026-08-15 17:45 |
| Novig◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.35% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 17:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48% | 3.3% | 2026-08-15 18:05 |