Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Zizou Bergs v Sebastian Baez

Início: 2026-08-05 15:08 UTC

Final: Zizou Bergs 2–1 Sebastian Baez

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

66 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Zizou Bergs (Local)

Previsão 57.43%1.74odd justa
EV -0.073%
Vantagem -0.042%
Kelly -0.098%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.74

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
54.69%57.47%57.51%59.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.551.671.671.7464.52%59.83%59.88%57.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sebastian Baez (Visitante)

Previsão 42.57%2.35odd justa
EV -1.66%
Vantagem -0.720%
Kelly -1.27%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.31

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.26%42.53%42.49%45.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.062.192.202.3148.54%45.71%45.45%43.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Zizou Bergs (Local): 57.43%; Sebastian Baez (Visitante): 42.57%. Para Zizou Bergs (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.741. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 1.740, com valor esperado de -0.073%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (66 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -0.073%E -0.042%K -0.098%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.647%E -0.374%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 14:20
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%EV -1.22%E -0.710%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65%EV -5.49%E -2.47%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-05 14:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -1.22%E -0.710%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 14:50
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -2.37%E -1.39%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -3.37%E -1.48%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-05 14:20
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -2.37%E -1.39%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -7.62%E -3.51%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 14:05
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -2.37%E -1.39%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -9.75%E -4.60%K -8.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 14:50
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -2.37%E -1.39%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 14:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -2.37%E -1.39%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%EV -12.30%E -5.97%K -11.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-05 14:20
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -2.94%E -1.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 14:20
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -2.94%E -1.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -8.47%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -3.52%E -2.09%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -4.22%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-05 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.52%E -2.09%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -3.52%E -2.09%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 14:10
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -3.52%E -2.09%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 14:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.09%E -0.908%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-05 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.09%E -0.908%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-05 14:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 14:20
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 14:10
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 14:00
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 14:20
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 14:00
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 14:25
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.47%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.67%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 14:25
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.24%E -3.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.94%E -1.29%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.24%E -3.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.64%E -2.07%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 14:25
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.24%E -3.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.64%E -2.07%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 14:24
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.24%E -3.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.64%E -2.07%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 14:25
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.24%E -3.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.64%E -2.07%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 14:25
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.24%E -3.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 14:05
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.24%E -3.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.24%E -3.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.47%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.24%E -3.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.47%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 14:00
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -3.37%E -1.48%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.39%E -3.92%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -2.09%E -0.908%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 14:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.39%E -3.92%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.22%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 14:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.39%E -3.92%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 14:05
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -6.96%E -4.30%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -1.66%E -0.720%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 14:50
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.96%E -4.30%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.09%E -0.908%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -6.96%E -4.30%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -3.79%E -1.68%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 14:50
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.96%E -4.30%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.22%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 14:25
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.96%E -4.30%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.22%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.96%E -4.30%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.22%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 10:40
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -6.96%E -4.30%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.30%EV -5.92%E -2.68%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 14:20
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.96%E -4.30%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 14:20
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.54%E -4.68%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 14:19
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.54%E -4.68%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.35%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 14:20
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -8.69%E -5.46%K -14.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -2.09%E -0.908%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 14:50
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -8.69%E -5.46%K -14.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -2.09%E -0.908%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 10:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.98%E -7.09%K -19.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -2.09%E -0.908%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 12:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.39%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.61%0.1%2026-08-05 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-08-05 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-08-05 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-08-05 14:55
ProphetX◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.2%2026-08-05 14:55
Novig◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.6%2026-08-05 14:55
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%1.9%2026-08-05 14:55