Language:English
Valentin Royer v Tommy Paul
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Valentin Royer (Local)
Prediction 19.24%5.20fair odd
EV +3.92%
Edge +0.726%
Kelly +0.891%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 5.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%19.33%19.16%21.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.865.005.4022.73%20.58%20.00%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tommy Paul (Visit)
Prediction 80.76%1.24fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -10.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.57%80.67%80.84%82.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.171.2187.72%84.90%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valentin Royer (Local): 19.24%; Tommy Paul (Visit): 80.76%. For Valentin Royer (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.20. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +3.92%E +0.726%K +0.891%G +0.035% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -6.32%E -5.45%K -39.52%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 16:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +1.99%E +0.376%K +0.464%G +0.009% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.32%E -5.45%K -39.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 16:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV +1.03%E +0.197%K +0.243%G +0.003% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.90%E -3.28%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.51%EV +0.840%E +0.160%K +0.198%G +0.002% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.49%EV -3.90%E -3.28%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-05 23:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -1.85%E -0.364%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 16:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.90%E -3.28%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 16:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 16:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 16:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 10:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 16:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 08:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 22:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.32%E -5.45%K -39.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 00:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.13%E -6.20%K -47.54%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-06 00:18 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.94%E -6.96%K -56.70%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-05 16:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.78%E -0.756%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.94%E -6.96%K -56.70%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-05 11:18 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.96I 20.16%NM 19.35%EV -4.55%E -0.917%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.65%EV -3.90%E -3.28%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-06 00:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -5.70%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -3.90%E -3.28%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-05 08:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.70%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.70%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-06 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.70%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.70%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -5.70%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -7.94%E -6.96%K -56.70%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 23:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -6.67%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.67%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-06 00:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.27%EV -8.40%E -1.76%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.73%EV -2.29%E -1.89%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 09:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.59%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 15:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.59%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.59%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 20:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -8.59%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-05 10:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -8.59%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.32%E -5.45%K -39.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-05 08:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.34%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.66%EV -2.29%E -1.89%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.34%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.66%EV -2.29%E -1.89%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 23:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -10.51%E -2.26%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -3.90%E -3.28%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 15:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.48%E -2.49%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.48%E -2.49%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -13.40%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -2.29%E -1.89%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 23:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.40%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.09%E -2.58%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 23:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.40%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.09%E -2.58%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 15:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.40%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.09%E -2.58%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 15:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.40%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.09%E -2.58%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 15:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.40%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.09%E -2.58%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.40%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-06 00:17 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.40%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.52%E -4.71%K -32.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-06 00:17 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -15.33%E -3.48%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.09%E -2.58%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 16:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -15.33%E -3.48%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.09%E -2.58%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -15.33%E -3.48%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.09%E -2.58%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 22:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -15.33%E -3.48%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.71%E -3.99%K -26.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-05 23:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 23:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 23:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.78% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.22% | 1.4% | 2026-08-05 23:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.53% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.47% | 1.9% | 2026-08-05 23:15 |
| Novig◎ | 5.41I 18.48%NM 18.03% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.97% | 2.5% | 2026-08-05 23:55 |