Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sho Shimabukuro v Marin Cilic

2026-08-02 22:00 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sho Shimabukuro (Local)

Prediction 43.09%2.32fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.56%43.17%42.97%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.152.122.2547.62%46.48%47.17%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marin Cilic (Visit)

Prediction 56.91%1.76fair odd
EV -0.975%
Edge -0.560%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.83%57.03%58.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.711.7462.50%58.97%58.48%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sho Shimabukuro (Local): 43.09%; Marin Cilic (Visit): 56.91%. For Marin Cilic (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.74, with an expected value of -0.975%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -3.05%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-02 08:44
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.05%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.96%E -2.97%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-02 08:39
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -3.05%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.23%E -4.44%K -11.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 08:40
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -3.05%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.94%E -5.59%K -14.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 08:39
Marathon Bet2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -4.77%E -2.16%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -5.53%E -3.33%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-02 08:44
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.20%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.53%E -3.33%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 08:45
Pinnacle2.18I 45.87%NM 44.39%EV -6.07%E -2.78%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.61%EV -0.975%E -0.560%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-02 08:40
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-02 08:45
Unibet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:35
PMU (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:35
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:40
Casumo2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:40
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:40
Grosvenor2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:40
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:40
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:39
Bally Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:39
betPARX2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:35
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -8.65%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 08:35
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.51%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.54%E -0.892%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 08:34
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.51%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.54%E -0.892%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 08:34
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.51%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.54%E -0.892%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 08:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%2.6%2026-08-02 08:45