Language:English
Rafael Jodar v Arthur Fils
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Prediction 56.48%1.77fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.49%56.43%58.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.691.7262.50%59.41%59.17%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Fils (Visit)
Prediction 43.52%2.30fair odd
EV +0.103%
Edge +0.045%
Kelly +0.079%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.03%43.51%43.57%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.202.3047.62%45.83%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Jodar (Local): 56.48%; Arthur Fils (Visit): 43.52%. For Arthur Fils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.298. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.300, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.103%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.51%E -5.25%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +0.103%E +0.045%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 09:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -9.64%E -6.02%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +0.103%E +0.045%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-11 17:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -0.768%E -0.337%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-11 04:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -0.768%E -0.337%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-11 04:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.04%EV -3.42%E -2.00%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.96%EV -1.20%E -0.530%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-08-11 17:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -6.25%E -3.76%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -1.64%E -0.725%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-11 17:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -3.42%E -2.00%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -2.07%E -0.922%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-11 17:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.07%E -0.922%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-11 17:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.07%E -0.922%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-11 08:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.81%E -4.13%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.07%E -0.922%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 17:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.81%E -4.13%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.07%E -0.922%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 14:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.81%E -4.13%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.07%E -0.922%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 17:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.51%E -5.25%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.07%E -0.922%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-11 17:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.23%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.77%EV -3.81%E -1.73%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-11 16:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%EV -3.99%E -2.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%EV -3.81%E -1.73%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-11 17:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -6.25%E -3.76%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -3.81%E -1.73%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-11 08:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.99%E -2.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-11 08:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.99%E -2.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-11 17:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.99%E -2.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-11 08:48 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.99%E -2.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-11 08:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.55%E -2.69%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-11 17:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 15:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 07:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 15:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 06:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.81%E -4.13%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-11 14:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.81%E -4.13%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-11 14:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.81%E -4.13%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-11 05:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.51%E -5.25%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 17:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.07%E -5.63%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-11 14:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.07%E -5.63%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.25%E -1.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-11 14:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -4.55%E -2.69%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV -4.68%E -2.14%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 10:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.12%E -3.05%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.12%E -2.35%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-11 17:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.12%E -2.35%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-11 15:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.99%E -2.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.43%E -2.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 09:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.99%E -2.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.43%E -2.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 09:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.99%E -2.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.43%E -2.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 17:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.55%E -2.69%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.43%E -2.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-11 17:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.55%E -2.69%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.43%E -2.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-11 17:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.12%E -3.05%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.43%E -2.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-11 17:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.43%E -2.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.81%E -4.13%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.43%E -2.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.86%E -1.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.73%E -3.65%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.42%E -2.00%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.60%E -4.10%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.42%E -2.00%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.60%E -4.10%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-10 21:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.60%E -4.10%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-11 12:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.68%E -3.40%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.60%E -4.10%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 17:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 17:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-08-11 17:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12% | 1.0% | 2026-08-11 17:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43% | 1.6% | 2026-08-11 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50% | 2.3% | 2026-08-11 17:45 |